Forum Archive :
GNU Backgammon
> What's the basis for having any confidence in a rollout? To make a
> thorough statistical evaluation of a position (which I suppose rollouts
> have been invented for) one needs to play each roll out of the 21
> possible rolls after every roll. How may rolls does an average game
> take? Due to the limitations of the output of my calculator let's say 38
> rolls by each player, a total of 76. The number of positions to be
> evaluated is 21^76 = 37 * 10^99.
Whoa... being thorough is one thing, but performing over a googol
evaluations to roll out a single position is quite another! Fortunately we
don't have to evaluate every position that could potentially result from
each play to come up with an answer we can have some reasonable confidence
in; by taking a shortcut here and there (and adding a dose of sampling
theory) we can get away with much less work than that.
The million dollar question is simple enough: out of all the games that
could result from playing this position, how many do we win (and how many
of our wins and losses are gammons, and how many are backgammons)? The
model is exactly the same as if we had an urn with a googol balls in it
(it's a big urn), and many of the balls have "win" written on them, and
some say "gammon loss", and if we look hard enough there are a few that
read "backgammon win", and so on. (Balls and urns are to probability
theorists what teapots and chequerboards are to computer graphics
researchers, or "squeamish ossifrage" is to cryptographers  they seem to
come with the territory.) Instead of having the patience to count the
googol balls, we just give the urn a really good shake and then pull 100
balls out without looking, and say for instance "Well, I got 53 wins, 31
losses, 9 gammon wins, 6 gammon losses, and a backgammon win  looks like
my equity's roughly +0.26." and go home. If we were a bit more thorough
(but there's still a long way between my "thorough" and yours!), we could
go a bit further and figure out that by cheating and measuring the sample
proportions instead of the population proportions, we introduced a standard
error of 0.06 into our result. (Of course, the trick is to select a sample
size that's big enough that you reduce the standard error to a tolerable
level, but small enough that the answer arrives before you get bored.)
It will come as no surprise that a rollout with a limited number of trials
follows exactly the same procedure. It's sufficient to say that the
proportion of wins/gammons etc. that come up when Jellyfish plays against
itself (say) 1296 times, aren't likely to vary all that much from the
proportion we would get if we measured the proportion of results in every
game we could possibly get of Jellyfish playing against itself. (Of
course, there may still be some doubt whether the results of JF vs. JF are
representative of the results of a perfect player vs. a perfect player, or
of you vs. Joe Average, but that's another story.)
> The correct answer about the rollout algorithm used by bots should come
> from their creators, but it's likely to be a trade secret.
Well, not all bot creators trade them, and they don't all keep secrets! :)
In GNU Backgammon (ftp://ftp.cs.arizona.edu/people/gary/gnubg0.0.tar.gz),
the function Rollout() in eval.c implements the procedure described above,
with the following improvements:
* Truncation: instead of rolling out all the way to the end of the game,
it can stop and pretend its evaluation after a few plies is perfect.
This may obviously introduce some amount of systematic error, but
in practice this may not matter because:
 it makes rollouts much faster, which means you can do more of
them (and thus trade sampling error for systematic error);
 different positions will be reached in different trials, so
the correlation between errors in each trial weakens and the
errors cancel out to some extent;
 if you are rolling out the positions after making different
plays, then any remaining systematic error between the two
rollouts is likely to be somewhat correlated and so the
error in the comparison between the plays is hopefully
small. This implies that truncated rollouts are better for
estimating _relative_ equity ("which is the better move here,
13/10*/9 or 13/10* 6/5*?") than _absolute_ equity ("at this
match score I need 29% wins to accept a dead cube; can I
take in this position?").
* Race database truncation: when the game enters its 2sided bearoff
database, gnubg can estimate the probability of winning from that
position with no error at all (it can play and evaluate endgame
positions perfectly), which saves time and avoids introducing the
errors that can result from large equity variances at the end of
the game.
* Variance reduction: when using lookahead evaluations, it can reduce
errors by making use of the equity difference from one ply to the
next. (This can be interpreted as either cancelling out the estimated
"luck" (ie. the difference in equity evaluations before and after
rolling) or using subsequent evaluations to estimate the error in
prior ones; the two views are equivalent). gnubg automatically
performs variance reduction when looking ahead at least one ply.
* Stratified sampling: uses quasirandom number generation instead of
pseudorandom number generation (this is a standard technique in Monte
Carlo simulations where having a nearperfect uniform distribution in
your sample is more important than unpredictability). gnubg only
stratifies the first 2 plies of a rollout, though it would be easy
enough to extend it to the remainder.
There are undoubtedly other possible heuristics, but I have only
implemented the above. This description has glossed over many of the finer
points that are involved  if you are interested in the details I
recommend that you examine the source code referred to above, or read some
earlier articles posted here that describe various topics with more
precision. Look for articles by Michael Zehr, David Montgomery, Chuck
Bower and Brian Sheppard for starters.
Cheers,
Gary.




GNU Backgammon
 Analyzing GamesGrid matches (Roy Passfield, Dec 2001)
 Batch analysis tool (Øystein Johansen, June 2004)
 Cache size (Ned Cross+, Mar 2004)
 Compiling for Windows (Øystein Johansen, Jan 2002)
 Edit mode removing checker from bar (Scott Steiner+, May 2003)
 Entering an annotated match (Albert Silver, Dec 2003)
 Error rates: Gnu vs. Snowie (Raccoon, Mar 2006)
 Evenply/oddply effect (Raccoon, Nov 2004)
 Evenply/oddply effect (Tom Keith+, Oct 2003)
 Evenply/oddply effect (Scott Steiner+, Dec 2002)
 Filter settings (RobertJan Veldhuizen, Nov 2004)
 Gnu 0.13 versus Jellyfish and Snowie (Torsten Schoop, Aug 2003)
 Gnu 0.13 vs. Snowie 4 (Albert Silver, June 2003)
 Gnu 0.14 vs. Jellyfish (Michael Howard+, July 2003)
 Gnu versus Snowie and Jellyfish (Michael Depreli, Oct 2005)
 How luck factor is calculated (Gregg Cattanach, Aug 2002)
 How rollouts work (Gary Wong, July 1999)
 How to enter an illegal move (Øystein Johansen, Aug 2003)
 Importing .gam files (PAR+, Mar 2005)
 Importing PartyGammon matches (rew+, July 2006)
 Improving your game using GnuBG (D.U.G.+, Nov 2002)
 Installing on Windows (maareyes, Oct 2001)
 Interpreting JSD's (Adrian Wright+, Feb 2005)
 JSD's and confidence intervals (Daniel Murphy+, Jan 2005)
 Logging rollouts (Øystein Johansen, Oct 2004)
 Luck rate (Kees van den Doel+, May 2002)
 MWC versus Equity (EMG) (Ken+, Apr 2005)
 Manually entering first roll (Andreas Graf+, Apr 2005)
 Match equity tables (Raccoon, July 2005)
 Personal reflections (Louis Nardy Pillards, Sept 2002)
 Playing two computers against each other (Stanley E. Richards+, Mar 2008)
 Python scripting (Øystein Johansen+, Nov 2004)
 Quasirandom dice in rollouts (Ian Shaw, Mar 2004)
 Question marks in game list (Jim Segrave, July 2005)
 Questions and answers (Jim Segrave+, Jan 2003)
 Questions and answers (Jørn Thyssen, Aug 2002)
 Restarting a rollout with different settings (Jim Segrave, Apr 2005)
 Restarting a rollout with different settings (RobertJan Veldhuizen, Apr 2004)
 Rollout settings (geoff arnold+, Apr 2007)
 Rollout settings (Stick+, Nov 2005)
 Rollout settings (RobertJan Veldhuizen, Mar 2004)
 Rollout settings (Ian Dunstan, Aug 2003)
 Rollout settings for the impatient (RobertJan Veldhuizen, June 2004)
 Running rollouts in background (Bruce+, Apr 2004)
 Saving rollout results from commandline interface (Jeremy Bagai+, Apr 2006)
 Saving rollouts (Mislav Radica+, May 2006)
 Setting GnuBG's playing strength (JP White, Sept 2001)
 Setting skill level (Jim Segrave, Apr 2004)
 Setting up and saving a rollout (Albert Silver, Dec 2003)
 What's GNU? (Gary Wong, Oct 2001)
 Which player is player 0? (Neil Kazaross+, Oct 2004)
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