One great tool I found to help come up with the numbers on the MET
(Woolsey's) is the 'Turner Formula'. This makes it unnecessary to memorize
all those numbers, and this simple algebraic formula gets you to the right
number on Woolsey's table within 1 percentage point for all scores up to
11away, 11away.
First, you must memorize the Crawford score numbers, so just memorize this
series: 30, 25, 17, 15, 10, 9, 6, 5, 3, 3. These are the trailer's equity
at 2away, 3away, 4away, etc. Crawford.
Turner Formula:
((24 / T + 3) * D) + 50 where:
T is the number of points the trailer has to go
D is the difference between the two scores.
This is quite easily done in your head, especially because 24 divides
evenly with so many numbers. If T is 5, then I just round (24 / T) to 5,
if T is 7 I round (24 / T) to 31/2 and it T is 9 I use (24 / T) as 22/3.
After completing the formula there are 5 'perverse' scores that need
adjustment at 2away 5away, 2away 6away, 2away 7away, 2away 8away,
2away 11away. For 2away 11away subtract 3 points. For the other 4 add
2 points to each, (or to be most precise actually at 3 points for 6away
and 7away). Your final result for any score up to 11away 11away is
always +1 of the Woolsey number and 80% of the time exact.
For those that use 'Neil's Numbers' which is also an excellent system,
you'll see that the (24 / T + 3) part is exactly Neil's number.
This much math can be done in your head, and figuring out a take point is
often quite important in lots of match situations. In my experience,
figuring the take point comes up 10 times more often than figuring the
minimum doubling point. The reason is when I'm doubling, it is usually
true that I want to be near my opponent's take point. So I'm either
figuring my take point (if being doubled) or my opponent's take point (if
I'm doubling.)
Take point: (PS  TL) \ (TW  TL)
PS=ME if passed
TL=ME if take and lose
TW=ME if take and win
This is still the risk / (risk + gain) formula: Risk = (PS  TL) Gain =
(TWPS) but the  PS and + PS elements in the denominator cancel out.
Hope this helps.
Gregg C.
