Forum Archive :
Match Equities
Snowie uses its own match equity table, based on a gammon
rate of 26%. I couldn't find those equities summarized in
a diagram, so I spent some minutes to create one. As I am
not willed to memorize more than that, I did it up to -9.
Here is the result:
Your opponent needs
You
need| 1* 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
----+--------------------------------------------------
1* | 50.0 -- 51.5 68.5 69.5 81.3 81.9 88.8 89.1 93.3
1 | -- 50.0 68.5 75.1 82.0 84.3 89.1 90.8 93.6 95.0
2 | 48.5 31.5 50.0 60.4 68.5 75.3 81.0 85.1 88.5 90.9
3 | 31.5 24.9 39.6 50.0 57.8 65.3 71.7 76.8 81.2 84.6
4 | 30.5 18.0 31.5 42.2 50.0 57.9 64.6 70.3 75.2 79.4
5 | 18.7 15.7 24.7 34.7 42.1 50.0 56.8 62.8 68.1 72.9
6 | 18.1 10.9 19.0 28.3 35.4 43.2 50.0 56.3 61.9 67.1
7 | 11.2 09.2 14.9 23.2 29.7 37.2 43.7 50.0 55.6 61.0
8 | 10.9 06.4 11.5 18.8 24.8 31.9 38.1 44.4 50.0 55.5
9 | 06.7 05.0 09.1 15.4 20.6 27.1 32.9 39.0 44.5 50.0
* = Post Crawford
-- = Retter-Paradox ;-)
While typing all those numbers, I was quite surprised how
similar they seemed to be to the Woolsey-table, I used to
work with (and actually still do). If my memory is right,
Kits tables where computed assuming a gammon rate of 20%.
Quite a difference, but the tables do not seem to reflect
on it much. So I created a second diagramm to display the
differences between the two versions. I took the numbers,
which are printed in "Cubes and Gammons..." by Ortega and
Kleinman and subtracted them from Snowie-values:
YON
YN | 1* 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
----+--------------------------------------------------
1*| # -- # # # # # # # #
1 | -- 0 -1.5 +0.1 -1.1 -0.9 -1.1 -0.5 -0.6 -0.1
2 | # +1.5 0 +0.6 +0.7 +0.5 +0.2 +0.3 +0.5 +0.1
3 | # -0.1 -0.6 0 +1.5 -0.5 +0.2 +0.4 +0.7 +0.2
4 | # +1.1 -0.7 -1.5 0 -0.1 +0.2 0 -0.2 0
5 | # +0.9 -0.5 +0.5 +0.1 0 -0.5 -0.5 -0.3 -0.4
6 | # +1.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 +0.5 0 +0.1 -0.4 -0.2
7 | # +0.5 -0.3 -0.4 0 +0.5 -0.1 0 -0.6 -0.3
8 | # +0.6 -0.5 -0.7 +0.2 +0.3 +0.4 +0.6 0 +0.2
9 | # +0.1 -0.1 -0.2 0 +0.4 +0.2 +0.3 -0.2 0
# = only Snowie-data available
Oh, how nice, only four matchscores (-1-2/-1-4/-1-6/-3-4)
differ more than 1%point, the largest is 1.5%points. Once
these figures should get "accepted", there is not as much
to relearn as I feared. Most discrepancies appear at -1-T
(T = points to go for Trailer). As expected the increased
gammon rate favours the Trailer at these scores, with him
only having usage of those extra-points.
I am confused by the result for -4-3. A doubled gammon at
this score should be a big shot for the trailer, winning
the match exactly outright. His matchequity should raise
assuming a larger gammon rate. Food for thought, who has
an idea?
Regards, Harald Retter
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Match Equities
- Constructing a match equity table (Walter Trice, Apr 2000)
- Does it matter which match equity table you use? (Klaus Evers+, Nov 2005)
- Does it matter which match equity table you use? (Achim Mueller+, Dec 2003)
- Does it matter which match equity table you use? (Chuck Bower+, Sept 2001)
- ME Table: Big Brother (Peter Fankhauser, July 1996)
- ME Table: Dunstan (Ian Dunstan+, Aug 2004)
- ME Table: Escoffery (David Escoffery, Nov 1991)
- ME Table: Friedman (Elliott C Winslow, Oct 1991)
- ME Table: Kazaross (Neil Kazaross, Dec 2003)
- ME Table: Kazaross-XG2 (neilkaz, Aug 2011)
- ME Table: Rockwell-Kazaross (Chuck Bower+, June 2010)
- ME Table: Snowie (Chase, Apr 2002)
- ME Table: Snowie (Harald Retter, Aug 1998)
- ME Table: Woolsey (Raccoon, Apr 2006)
- ME Table: Woolsey (Kit Woolsey, May 1994)
- ME Table: Woolsey (William R. Tallmadge, Jan 1994)
- ME Table: Zadeh (Jørn Thyssen, Mar 2004)
- ME Table: Zorba (Robert-Jan Veldhuizen+, Dec 2003)
- ME at 1-away/2-away (crawford) (Fabrice Liardet+, Nov 2007)
- ME at 1-away/2-away (crawford) (Ian Shaw+, Apr 2003)
- Match equities--an alternate view (Durf Freund, Oct 1994)
- Neil's new numbers (neilkaz, Aug 2011)
- Neil's numbers (Kit Woolsey+, Oct 1994)
- On calculating match equity tables (Neil Kazaross, July 2004)
- Turner formula (Gregg Cattanach, Feb 2003)
- Turner formula (Stephen Turner, June 1994)
- Using a match equity table (Michael J. Zehr, June 1992)
- Value of free drop (Neil Kazaross, Oct 2002)
- Which match equity table is best? (Martin Krainer+, Oct 2003)
- Which match equity table is best? (Ian Shaw+, Dec 2001)
- Why use a match equity table? (Kit Woolsey, Feb 1999)
- Worth memorizing? (Alef Rosenbaum+, Feb 2003)
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