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Hank Youngerman wrote:
> Playing a FIBS match against a player with a decent rating, I took a
> 4-1 lead in a match to 5. I lost the next (Crawford) game. In the
> following game, my opponent did not double until about the 5th or 6th
> roll. My guestimate is that his winning chances at that point were in
> the 60-65% range - clearly a take of course. I made a statement that
> "It always surprises me how often good players (and myself too) forget
> to double right away post-Crawford." My opponent said that he
> intentionally waited, in the hope that he would get a free point (i.e.
> his position would be strong enough to induce a drop.)
>
> My belief is that this cannot possibly be correct strategy. First, it
> just FEELS wrong. On a more analytical level, unless you think your
> opponent's judgment is very poor and that he will take a clear drop,
> in effect you are saying "I want to maneuver you into a position where
> you have a drop. But then, even though I would like to force you to
> take such a position, I want you to drop it anyway. (Since I could
> "force" you to take in such a position by making a no-cost double
> earlier before my position got this strong.)"
>
> Who's right, him or me?
Many of the very best players on the tournament circuit do this. Paul
Magriel (x-22) calls it "the trick". The idea is this: the trailer
benefits greatly if he can steal a point here - he is then an
even-money bet in the match.
He knows you will take if he doubles at the first opportunity. If he
waits, he is giving you a chance to make a mistake. Mainly this will
happen when *there is some gammon danger*. Now you have something to
think about, don't you?
The simple arithmetic says you should take *unless* your chances of
losing a gammon are greater than your chances of winning. Are you
sure you can judge this accurately in every case? If so, hats off to
you!!
If you take, he is no worse off than having doubled at the first
opportunity. If you pass and passing is an error, he benefits. If
you take and *that* was an error, he benefits.
Looks like a 100% proposition for him to wait.
deekay
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