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Mike Depreli writes:
> Now I want to get onto the general subject when the leader is 2 away.
> At this score the leader gets no benefit from owning the cube as there
> will never be any equity lost by doubling early WITHIN THE DOUBLING
> WINDOW as the cube is dead. So does this mean that if you have even a
> single market loser you should double?
No. Although you are not giving your opponent a cube they can
use as a weapon, you are still doubling your opponent's wins.
For this reason, you shouldn't double until you have significant
chances of big market loss.
If you don't have significant chances of a big market loss, then
there are two things that can happen:
1) Things can go your way. Now you can double, and you won't
have given up much by waiting since you only rarely lose your
market by a lot.
2) Things can go against you. Now you are glad that you haven't
doubled, since doubling still doubles your losses.
When your opponent needs 2 points, scenario 2) is less scary, since
a) if you double your opponent cannot use the cube against you,
b) if you don't double, your opponent still could use the cube, and
c) doubling doesn't double your opponent's gammon wins --
but this doesn't mean that you can double with any market loser.
For example, at -4:-2, in a gammonless low wastage medium length race,
you still need to be around 73% to offer a profitable double. You need
roughly a 10% lead in the pipcount, even though if the count were
even you would have a number of large market losers.
David Montgomery
monty on FIBS
monty@cs.umd.edu
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