Match Play

Forum Archive : Match Play

 
Match play 101

From:   Max Urban
Address:   max.urban@standardbank.co.za
Date:   5 October 2009
Subject:   Match Equity 101
Forum:   rec.games.backgammon

When playing matches I generally find that I try to estimate my winning
chances and I do crudely take into consideration gammon losses/wins (a là
"I lose quite a few gammons here"). But I have never really bothered
learning how to do a proper risk/gain analysis and applying numbers to take
points etc.  I have generally relied on my experience and I was more than a
little relieved when I learnt that many players on this forum only rarely
do the actual number crunching.  Nevertheless, it can't harm familiarising
oneself with this concept a little more so here is my question:

What would be the best way for me to approach this whole topic?  Do I just
learn one of the match equity tables by heart?  Or perhaps one of the
methods developed by Kleinman or NeilKaz?  What method do you guys use?  I
would imagine that differences in ME tables and estimation techniques are
negligible at my level?  Do I maybe just learn the take/drop points for
5a5a and closer?

Matt Cohn-Geier  writes:

Here is my approach. I am not claiming it is the best one, it was just the
easiest one for me.

1. I started by memorizing a MET for 5-point matches, because that is what
   I was playing at the time (in Madison). This was not terribly difficult
   but it didn't do me a whole lot of good by itself. However since I have
   found that 5- or 7-point matches are essentially the basis for longer
   match play.

2. I came to understand how one could work out a takepoint and a givepoint
   from a MET. Now the numbers actually did me some good. I still don't
   really understand how to work out GVs but probably I could with a little
   practice.

3. I memorized Neil's #s for longer matches since memorizing the rest of
   the table was more or less impossible. I have since switched to John's
   version of Neil's #s which are quite accurate. I review this part once
   in awhile because I often forget it, probably because it only rarely
   ever comes up. It doesn't take long to review but it doesn't really help
   much.

4. I started playing around with GNU's market window and positions at
   different scores, memorizing GVs, memorizing "raw" takepoints on 4 cubes
   or 8 cubes (2 cubes are real easy), looking at how takepoints change
   with lower and higher % of gammons, trying to understand positions and
   recube vig, etc. This is what I currently work on when I am trying to
   prepare for match play.

You might think it is difficult to memorize a bunch of stuff but in my
experience it turns out to be several orders of magnitude easier than
trying to work it out mathematically OTB. But to each his own.

Stick  writes:

I played backgammon for an entire year without having the slightest idea
that match equity even existed. I played for money, so it wasn't a big
deal, but one of the first things I did need to understand was the raw take
point for money, recube vig, and the gammon value, all of which would come
in handy later when I was awakened to the world of match play.

Still, when I started playing on the ABT I hadn't the slightest idea what
all that shit meant or this score v. that score v. the other score. There
wasn't a good guide out there to point me in the right direction, what to
learn first, how to learn it, how to approach, basically the same questions
you're asking right now.

I stumbled around, picking up some things, and then read Kit's article on
"The 5-point match," (http://www.bkgm.com/articles/GOL/Aug99/fivept.htm).
Also Kit's pamphlet on match play
(http://www.bkgm.com/books/Woolsey-HowToPlayTournamentBackgammon.html).
This put a lot of the pieces of the puzzle together that I was otherwise
unsure of. Sure, it isn't my match equity table of preference in use in the
article but that's even better, then I can redo the work myself and get my
own answers, put the information to use.

Not everything in the article I've come to find is 100% accurate but it's a
damn great start. After reading and rereading and soaking in the
information I redid all the take points for a 5 point match. Then, thanks
to my good friend GNU as MCG mentioned, you have tons of options to tinker
with from gammon values, (raw) take points, etc.  I always liked how John
O'Hagan seemed to approach the game here on the forums, always knowing the
take point, gammon value, recube vig, I wanted to know all that and low and
behold, there it was in front of me.

It seems like a lot to swallow from the onset but it builds upon itself and
the more you learn the easier the entirety of it becomes. I would recommend
straight out memorizing the MET out to 7 points, it's quite easy. I'd
figure out the raw take points for all scores and at least get a good hold
on the value of gammons at scores where it differs from normal. You may not
need to know exactly the gammon value of a 2 cube at -5 -5 but you should
have a general idea of whether it's less or more than money and why that
is.

After that, perhaps my articles on gammonvillage will be of some use. I
should be up to -3 -3 by then and I keep expanding out having already
covered dmp, gs, gg, -2 -3 and -3 -2. The math is included, the key points
again noted, and it's hopefully more comprehensive than Kit's article with
a better MET and some things either added or removed.

Before you move to the blissful world of understanding everything that is
ME let me tell you there are some players in the world, even some of the
best players in the world, who function without the use of this
information. They have a good feel for things but if it came down to the
skinny of it in that rare instance they need to know exactly their TP they
may not be able to conjure it up. At the WSOB this year I was the one
feeding the oddsmakers the match equities to update their betting line, I
was a little astonished they didn't know them already.

David Rockwell  writes:

In my experience, a lot of players are willing to memorize take points, but
unwilling to memorize gammon values. For these individuals, I recommend
grouping the gammon value into four categories and memorizing these (or
deducing them from common sense):

1. zero - zero or significantly less than money

2. money - .50 or very close to .50

3. elevated - between money and 1.0

4. GG - 1.00 or higher

This should get one through the majority of matchplay decisions.
 
Did you find the information in this article useful?          

Do you have any comments you'd like to add?     

 

Match Play

1-away/1-away: advice from Bernhard Kaiser  (Darse Billings, July 1995)  [Long message] [Recommended reading]
1-away/1-away: advice from Stick  (Stick+, Mar 2007)  [GammOnLine forum]
1-away/1-away: and similar scores  (Lou Poppler, Aug 1995) 
2-away/3-away: playing for gammon  (Tom Keith, Feb 1996) 
2-away/4-away: Neil's rule of 80  (Neil Kazaross, June 2004)  [GammOnLine forum]
2-away/4-away: cube strategy  (Tom Keith, Dec 1996) 
2-away/4-away: practical issues  (Mark Damish, Jan 1996) 
2-away/4-away: trailer's initial double  (Kit Woolsey, Jan 1996) 
3-away/4-away: opponent's recube  (William C. Bitting+, Feb 1997)  [Long message]
3-away/4-away: racing cube  (Bill Calton+, Nov 2012) 
3-away/4-away: tricky cube decision  (Kit Woolsey+, July 1994) 
3-away/4-away: what's the correct equity?  (Tom Keith, Sept 1997) 
4-away/4-away: take/drop point  (Gary Wong, Oct 1997) 
5-away/11-away: redouble to 8  (Gavin Anderson, Oct 1998) 
7-away/11-away: volatile recube decision  (Kit Woolsey, May 1997) 
Both too good and not good enough to double  (Paul Epstein+, Sept 2007) 
Comparing 2-away/3-away and 2-away/4-away  (Douglas Zare, Mar 2002) 
Crawford rule  (Chuck Bower, May 1998) 
Crawford rule  (Kit Woolsey, Mar 1997) 
Crawford rule--Why just one game?  (Walter Trice, Jan 2000) 
Crawford rule--history  (Michael Strato, Jan 2001) 
Delayed mandatory double  (tem_sat+, Oct 2010) 
Delayed mandatory double  (Donald Kahn+, Dec 1997)  [Recommended reading]
Doubling when facing a gammon loss  (Kit Woolsey, Jan 1999) 
Doubling when opponent is 2-away  (David Montgomery, Dec 1997) 
Doubling when you're an underdog  (Stein Kulseth, Dec 1997) 
Doubling window with gammons  (Jason Lee+, Jan 2009) 
Free drop  (Ian Shaw, May 1999) 
Free drop  (Willis Elias+, Oct 1994) 
Gammonless takepoint formula  (Adam Stocks, June 2002) 
Going for gammon when opp has free drop  (Kit Woolsey, Jan 1998) 
Going for gammon when opp has free drop  (Kit Woolsey, Apr 1995) 
Holland rule  (Neil Kazaross, Apr 2010) 
Holland rule  (Kit Woolsey, Dec 1994) 
Leading 2-away with good gammon chances  (Douglas Zare, Feb 2004)  [GammOnLine forum]
Match play 101  (Max Urban+, Oct 2009) 
Matches to a set number of games  (Tom Keith+, Oct 1998) 
Playing when opponent has free drop  (Gilles Baudrillard+, Dec 1996) 
Post-crawford doubling  (Scott Steiner+, Feb 2004) 
Post-crawford doubling  (Maik Stiebler+, Dec 2002) 
Post-crawford doubling  (Gus+, Sept 2002) 
Post-crawford mistakes  (Rob Adams, Sept 2007)  [GammOnLine forum]
Post-crawford/2-away: too good to double  (Robert-Jan Veldhuizen, July 2004) 
Slotting when opponent has free drop  (onur alan+, Apr 2013) 
Take points  (fiore+, Feb 2005)  [GammOnLine forum]
Tips to improve cube handling  (Lucky Jim+, Jan 2010) 
When to free drop  (Dan Pelton+, Oct 2006) 
When to free drop  (Tom Keith+, July 2005)  [GammOnLine forum]
When to free drop  (Gregg Cattanach, Dec 2004)  [GammOnLine forum]
When to free drop  (Kit Woolsey, Feb 1998) 
When to free drop  (Chuck Bower, Jan 1998) 
Which format most favors the favorite?  (Daniel Murphy+, Jan 2006)  [GammOnLine forum]

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