|
BobSMan wrote:
> Andrew Bokelman writes:
> > One variation I've come up with is as follows:
> >
> > 1. A match consists of a decided-upon number of games.
> > 2. When that number of games is played, whoever has more points wins.
> > 3. If there is a tie, one more game is played to break the tie.
> >
> > But I guess that this can have its problems too. For example, if it is
> > near the end of the match the trailer can start doing automatic
> > doubles. But for some reason the above method strikes me as better.
>
> But remember, if the trailer starts doubling early there will now be
> a price to pay. Once a player needs more than three points per game
> remaining, the match is over. If he doubles, the double will be refused,
> and winning an undoubled backgammon in every game will not be enough to
> save him. If a player begins making early doubles before this point (in
> an effort to avoid this situation) the price will be an increased
> probability of reaching this point even earlier.
> In fact, I've thought of this type of match myself, and it has always
> seemed a good solution to the problem, IMO. A player who is behind will
> never be able to double automatically in an effort to catch up, because
> of the probable benefit to the opponent. And once a player becomes
> sufficiently far behind, any attempt to use the cube at all will result
> in the loss of the match. The structure of the match itself removes the
> need for any artificial controls on the cube.
>
> Bob Sisselman
Gary Wong did a nice critique of this type of match a week or so ago.
Here are a few observations about what happens if you run matches this
way:
1. Near the end of the match, the match equities are not very evenly
distributed -- especially at 1-game-to-go, where there is no real
difference between being ahead by one point, being tied, or being
behind by one point. Besides appearing somewhat unfair, this
skews the take points in the 2-to-go game.
2. Some match scores leave the trailer with only a very remote chance
of turning things around. For example, when you are behind by 4
with 2 games to go, you must win two consecutive gammons and then
a tie-breaker to win the match -- that's less than a one percent
chance. Playing with so little at stake would not be very
enjoyable for many players. (Behind by 6 with 3 games to go is
even worse.)
3. At certain match scores, such as down-3 with 2-to-go, you've lost
your market even before the game begins. Your initial strategy
must be to play for a gammon, and then only if things go badly
will you double. (This isn't bad, necessarily -- just different
than normal match play.)
Some match equities:
Games left: 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Lead 10: 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 .999 .986 .953 .939 .921
Lead 9: 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 .990 .954 .932 .912 .893
Lead 8: 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 .993 .956 .922 .902 .880 .863
Lead 7: 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 .997 .960 .910 .890 .864 .845 .827
Lead 6: 1.000 1.000 1.000 .999 .969 .894 .874 .845 .824 .805 .789
Lead 5: 1.000 1.000 1.000 .980 .876 .855 .821 .798 .778 .761 .747
Lead 4: 1.000 1.000 .992 .877 .830 .792 .765 .745 .727 .714 .701
Lead 3: 1.000 1.000 .891 .793 .756 .724 .705 .687 .674 .663 .653
Lead 2: 1.000 .938 .695 .718 .669 .658 .636 .628 .618 .610 .603
Lead 1: 1.000 .500 .678 .584 .598 .573 .572 .564 .559 .555 .552
Lead 0: .500 .500 .500 .500 .500 .500 .500 .500 .500 .500 .500
Lead -1: .000 .500 .322 .416 .402 .427 .428 .436 .441 .445 .448
Lead -2: .000 .062 .305 .282 .331 .342 .364 .372 .382 .390 .397
Lead -3: .000 .000 .109 .207 .244 .276 .295 .313 .326 .337 .347
Lead -4: .000 .000 .008 .123 .170 .208 .235 .255 .273 .286 .299
Lead -5: .000 .000 .000 .020 .124 .145 .179 .202 .222 .239 .253
Lead -6: .000 .000 .000 .001 .031 .106 .126 .155 .176 .195 .211
Lead -7: .000 .000 .000 .000 .003 .040 .090 .110 .136 .155 .173
Lead -8: .000 .000 .000 .000 .000 .007 .044 .078 .098 .120 .137
Lead -9: .000 .000 .000 .000 .000 .000 .010 .046 .068 .088 .107
Lead -10: .000 .000 .000 .000 .000 .000 .001 .014 .047 .061 .079
(Assumptions: 25% gammon rate, 0% backgammon rate, efficient doubles,
free drop ignored.)
Tom Keith
|