Cube Handling

Forum Archive : Cube Handling

Value of an ace-point game

From:   Raccoon
Date:   6 June 2006
Subject:   Playing with fire
Forum:   GammOnLine

How often does a well-timed ace point game win? Norwegian player Hans
Liby's estimate of 17% is in the archives. In 1999 American
player Chuck Bower reported finding 24%, with Snowie 2. In a 1998
discussion his guesstimate was 15-20%. In a 1996 discussion the American
player Kit Woolsey estimated 20%. I would quote the American player Bob
Wachtel's book if I could find it but I can only find the publishing
date -- 1993! There's been little discussion of "well-timed" ace point
games in since 2000 -- are today's players so good
that they don't get stuck in them much anymore?

In his Encyclopedia, chapter 3, Woolsey shows various ace point game
positions (not all well-timed) winning anywhere from 16% to 27%.
Focusing on money game cube decisions, Woolsey points out that often
better timing does not solve the defender's money game problem, since
increased timing leads both to more wins and more gammon losses. At DMP,
defender need not worry about losing gammons, of course, so he should be
able to squeeze a little more GWC out of a decently timed game.

I tend to guess that a well-timed ace point game is often almost a money
take -- if only one could ignore the gammons! So: about 20% GWC, as
Woolsey then and OpenWheel now wrote, or the low 20s -- somewhere around

Ian Dunstan  writes:

In Bob Wachtel's book, "In the Game Until the End:", he provides the
following position as an example of "A well-timed ace point game".

I couldn't easily see (in his book) that Bob states explicitly what the
CPW numbers are, but I did a short rollout assuming DMP.  23% seems
about right.

     24  23  22  21  20  19      18  17  16  15  14  13
    |             O   O   O |   | O                     |
    |             O   O   O |   | O                     |
    |                       |   |                       |
    |                       |   |                       |
    |                       |   |                       |
    |                       | O |                       |
    |                       | O |                       |
    | O                     |   |                       |
    | O   X   X   X   X   X |   |                       |
    | O   X   X   X   X   X |   |                       |
    | O   X   X   X   X   X |   | O                     |
      1   2   3   4   5   6       7   8   9  10  11  12
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Cube Handling

Against a weaker opponent  (Kit Woolsey, July 1994) 
Closed board cube decisions  (Dan Pelton+, Jan 2009) 
Cube concepts  (Peter Bell, Aug 1995)  [Long message]
Early game blitzes  (kruidenbuiltje, Jan 2011) 
Early-late ratio  (Tom Keith, Sept 2003) 
Endgame close out: Michael's 432 rule  (Michael Bo Hansen+, Feb 1998)  [Recommended reading]
Endgame close out: Spleischft formula  (Simon Larsen, Sept 1999) 
Endgame closeout: win percentages  (David Rubin+, Oct 2010) 
Evaluating the position  (Daniel Murphy, Feb 2001) 
Evaluating the position  (Daniel Murphy, Mar 2000) 
How does rake affect cube actions?  (Paul Epstein+, Sept 2005) 
How to use the doubling cube  (Michael J. Zehr, Nov 1993) 
Liveliness of the cube  (Kit Woolsey, Apr 1997) 
PRAT--Position, Race, and Threats  (Alan Webb, Feb 2001) 
Playing your opponent  (Morris Pearl+, Jan 2002)  [GammOnLine forum]
References  (Chuck Bower, Nov 1997) 
Robertie's rule  (Chuck Bower, Sept 2006)  [GammOnLine forum]
Rough guidelines  (Michael J. Zehr, Dec 1993) 
Tells  (Tad Bright+, Nov 2003)  [GammOnLine forum]
The take/pass decision  (Otis+, Aug 2007) 
Too good to double  (Michael J. Zehr, May 1997) 
Too good to double--Janowski's formula  (Chuck Bower, Jan 1997) 
Value of an ace-point game  (Raccoon+, June 2006)  [GammOnLine forum]
Value of an ace-point game  (Øystein Johansen, Aug 2000) 
Volatility  (Chuck Bower, Oct 1998)  [Long message]
Volatility  (Kit Woolsey, Sept 1996) 
When to accept a double  (Daniel Murphy+, Feb 2001) 
When to beaver  (Walter Trice, Aug 1999) 
When to double  (Kit Woolsey, Nov 1994) 
With the Jacoby rule  (KL Gerber+, Nov 2002) 
With the Jacoby rule  (Gary Wong, Dec 1997) 
Woolsey's law  (PersianLord+, Mar 2008) 
Woolsey's law  (Kit Woolsey, Sept 1996) 
Words of wisdom  (Chris C., Dec 2003) 

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