Forum Archive :
> So my buddy Jimmy and I like to have a drink or two when we play BG,
> and we tend to get a little loosey-goosey with the old doubling cube at
> times. Beavers, raccoons, ardvarks,... we've seen them all, and then
> Well, before I let Jimmy take any more of my money, I thought I'd try
> to ascertain the break point for when to beaver. Obviously, it must be
> somewhere between 25% and 50%. Since there is equity in owning the
> cube, I would not think I need to be all the way to 50%, but where is
> the break point?
> And while we're at it, any thoughts about when to raccoon?
For bear-offs, there is a theoretical minimum beaver point of 37.5%. This
corresponds to the analogous minimum take-point of 18.75%. The minimum take
is realized in the position where each player has one man on the 6-point.
As far as I know, the minimum beaver doesn't come up in a real position.
However, in the following position you can beaver with a cpw of 39.6%: your
opponent (doubling) has 2 men on the 3-point and you (beavering) have one
man on the 6.
The "continuous model" gives a take-point of 20%, and a corresponding
beaver-point of 40%. Just as you usually need more than 20% to take, you
usually need more than 40% to beaver. In a short race it depends a lot on
what effect the specific position has on your cube efficiency. It is very
commonly correct to beaver with a 44% or greater cubeless chance of
winning. In a long race the beaver point approaches the theoretical 40%.
Of course it's a bit more complex with gammons.
For raccoons, it is usually true that you should raccoon if your opponent
shouldn't have beavered. But there is a class of exceptions -- consisting
of the Kauder Paradox positions. The sequence double/beaver/raccoon may be
correct (rarely!) And, finally, there are positions which you should beaver
if and only if your opponent can't (or won't) raccoon.
- Against a weaker opponent (Kit Woolsey, July 1994)
- Closed board cube decisions (Dan Pelton+, Jan 2009)
- Cube concepts (Peter Bell, Aug 1995)
- Early game blitzes (kruidenbuiltje, Jan 2011)
- Early-late ratio (Tom Keith, Sept 2003)
- Endgame close out: Michael's 432 rule (Michael Bo Hansen+, Feb 1998)
- Endgame close out: Spleischft formula (Simon Larsen, Sept 1999)
- Endgame closeout: win percentages (David Rubin+, Oct 2010)
- Evaluating the position (Daniel Murphy, Feb 2001)
- Evaluating the position (Daniel Murphy, Mar 2000)
- How does rake affect cube actions? (Paul Epstein+, Sept 2005)
- How to use the doubling cube (Michael J. Zehr, Nov 1993)
- Liveliness of the cube (Kit Woolsey, Apr 1997)
- PRAT--Position, Race, and Threats (Alan Webb, Feb 2001)
- Playing your opponent (Morris Pearl+, Jan 2002)
- References (Chuck Bower, Nov 1997)
- Robertie's rule (Chuck Bower, Sept 2006)
- Rough guidelines (Michael J. Zehr, Dec 1993)
- Tells (Tad Bright+, Nov 2003)
- The take/pass decision (Otis+, Aug 2007)
- Too good to double (Michael J. Zehr, May 1997)
- Too good to double--Janowski's formula (Chuck Bower, Jan 1997)
- Value of an ace-point game (Raccoon+, June 2006)
- Value of an ace-point game (Øystein Johansen, Aug 2000)
- Volatility (Chuck Bower, Oct 1998)
- Volatility (Kit Woolsey, Sept 1996)
- When to accept a double (Daniel Murphy+, Feb 2001)
- When to beaver (Walter Trice, Aug 1999)
- When to double (Kit Woolsey, Nov 1994)
- With the Jacoby rule (KL Gerber+, Nov 2002)
- With the Jacoby rule (Gary Wong, Dec 1997)
- Woolsey's law (PersianLord+, Mar 2008)
- Woolsey's law (Kit Woolsey, Sept 1996)
- Words of wisdom (Chris C., Dec 2003)