Match Play

Forum Archive : Match Play

 
When to free drop

From:   Tom Keith
Address:   tom@bkgm.com
Date:   26 July 2005
Subject:   Re: free drops
Forum:   GammOnLine

> When should the loser of the opening roll drop if he is leading
> 1away-2away post-Crawford?

Here is a list of rolls that give you positive equity (greater than
50% chance of winning the game) after you have lost the opening roll.
If you roll anything else, you should drop.  These values are gathered
from the truncated rollouts here:
http://www.bkgm.com/openings/replies.html#rollouts_of_replies.
They are only approximately correct because truncated rollouts are poor
estimators of absolute equity.

 After 2-1: 24/21, 13/11
   1-1: .544
   2-2: .553
   3-1: .522
   3-3: .555
   4-2: .504
   4-4: .602
   5-5: .519
   6-4: .553
   6-6: .633

 After 3-1: 8/5, 6/5
   1-1: .502
   2-2: .502
   3-3: .519
   6-6: .612

 After 3-2: 24/21, 13/11
   1-1: .549
   2-2: .596
   3-1: .508
   3-3: .550
   4-2: .546
   4-4: .601
   5-5: .514
   6-4: .540
   6-6: .612

 After 4-1: 24/23, 13/9
   1-1: .537
   2-2: .549
   3-1: .513
   3-3: .555
   4-4: .609
   5-3: .549
   5-5: .518
   6-2: .549
   6-4: .507
   6-6: .631

 After 4-2: 8/4, 6/4
   1-1: .518
   2-2: .522
   3-3: .516
   4-4: .574
   6-6: .614

 After 4-3: 24/21, 13/9
   1-1: .549
   2-2: .596
   3-1: .501
   3-3: .552
   4-2: .545
   4-4: .621
   5-3: .539
   5-5: .518
   6-2: .539
   6-6: .603

 After 5-1: 24/23, 13/8
   1-1: .542
   2-2: .561
   3-1: .527
   3-3: .558
   4-2: .509
   4-4: .592
   5-5: .518
   6-1: .506
   6-4: .506
   6-6: .634

 After 5-2: 24/22, 13/8
   1-1: .535
   2-2: .552
   3-1: .518
   3-3: .604
   4-2: .501
   4-4: .588
   5-3: .526
   5-5: .598
   6-6: .617

 After 5-3: 8/3, 6/3
   1-1: .546
   2-2: .548
   3-1: .513
   3-3: .551
   4-4: .581
   6-6: .621

 After 5-4: 13/9, 13/8
   1-1: .566
   2-2: .557
   3-1: .520
   3-3: .557
   4-4: .609
   5-3: .546
   6-2: .546
   6-6: .628

 After 6-1: 13/7, 8/7
   1-1: .528
   2-2: .533
   3-3: .537
   4-4: .580

 After 6-2: 24/18, 13/11
   1-1: .577
   2-2: .512
   3-3: .549
   4-4: .560
   5-5: .535
   6-1: .527
   6-4: .532
   6-6: .635

 After 6-3: 24/18, 13/10
   1-1: .581
   2-2: .513
   3-3: .551
   4-4: .553
   5-4: .526
   5-5: .535
   6-1: .528
   6-3: .526
   6-6: .641

 After 6-4: 24/14
   1-1: .515
   2-1: .514
   2-2: .607
   3-2: .520
   3-3: .529
   4-2: .521
   4-4: .568
   5-2: .517
   5-5: .534
   6-2: .521
   6-6: .616

 After 6-5: 24/13
   1-1: .503
   2-2: .526
   3-3: .529
   4-4: .564
   5-5: .526
   6-6: .620

Gregg Cattanach  writes:

I cross-checked my DMP equities for the 2nd roll vs. Tom's list above,
and it's pretty accurate.

I'd just add these: (and they are all really close),

After 51 24/23 13/8   65
After 53 8/3 6/3      55
After 54 13/9 13/8    61
After 54 13/9 13/8    55

I can't really publish the numbers I have because they are a lot of the
basis of Paul and Nack's upcoming book. (And no, I don't know when it's
going to be published).

Gregg C.
 
Did you find the information in this article useful?          

Do you have any comments you'd like to add?     

 

Match Play

1-away/1-away: advice from Bernhard Kaiser  (Darse Billings, July 1995)  [Long message] [Recommended reading]
1-away/1-away: advice from Stick  (Stick+, Mar 2007)  [GammOnLine forum]
1-away/1-away: and similar scores  (Lou Poppler, Aug 1995) 
2-away/3-away: playing for gammon  (Tom Keith, Feb 1996) 
2-away/4-away: Neil's rule of 80  (Neil Kazaross, June 2004)  [GammOnLine forum]
2-away/4-away: cube strategy  (Tom Keith, Dec 1996) 
2-away/4-away: practical issues  (Mark Damish, Jan 1996) 
2-away/4-away: trailer's initial double  (Kit Woolsey, Jan 1996) 
3-away/4-away: opponent's recube  (William C. Bitting+, Feb 1997)  [Long message]
3-away/4-away: racing cube  (Bill Calton+, Nov 2012) 
3-away/4-away: tricky cube decision  (Kit Woolsey+, July 1994) 
3-away/4-away: what's the correct equity?  (Tom Keith, Sept 1997) 
4-away/4-away: take/drop point  (Gary Wong, Oct 1997) 
5-away/11-away: redouble to 8  (Gavin Anderson, Oct 1998) 
7-away/11-away: volatile recube decision  (Kit Woolsey, May 1997) 
Both too good and not good enough to double  (Paul Epstein+, Sept 2007) 
Comparing 2-away/3-away and 2-away/4-away  (Douglas Zare, Mar 2002) 
Crawford rule  (Chuck Bower, May 1998) 
Crawford rule  (Kit Woolsey, Mar 1997) 
Crawford rule--Why just one game?  (Walter Trice, Jan 2000) 
Crawford rule--history  (Michael Strato, Jan 2001) 
Delayed mandatory double  (tem_sat+, Oct 2010) 
Delayed mandatory double  (Donald Kahn+, Dec 1997)  [Recommended reading]
Doubling when facing a gammon loss  (Kit Woolsey, Jan 1999) 
Doubling when opponent is 2-away  (David Montgomery, Dec 1997) 
Doubling when you're an underdog  (Stein Kulseth, Dec 1997) 
Doubling window with gammons  (Jason Lee+, Jan 2009) 
Free drop  (Ian Shaw, May 1999) 
Free drop  (Willis Elias+, Oct 1994) 
Gammonless takepoint formula  (Adam Stocks, June 2002) 
Going for gammon when opp has free drop  (Kit Woolsey, Jan 1998) 
Going for gammon when opp has free drop  (Kit Woolsey, Apr 1995) 
Holland rule  (Neil Kazaross, Apr 2010) 
Holland rule  (Kit Woolsey, Dec 1994) 
Leading 2-away with good gammon chances  (Douglas Zare, Feb 2004)  [GammOnLine forum]
Match play 101  (Max Urban+, Oct 2009) 
Matches to a set number of games  (Tom Keith+, Oct 1998) 
Playing when opponent has free drop  (Gilles Baudrillard+, Dec 1996) 
Post-crawford doubling  (Scott Steiner+, Feb 2004) 
Post-crawford doubling  (Maik Stiebler+, Dec 2002) 
Post-crawford doubling  (Gus+, Sept 2002) 
Post-crawford mistakes  (Rob Adams, Sept 2007)  [GammOnLine forum]
Post-crawford/2-away: too good to double  (Robert-Jan Veldhuizen, July 2004) 
Slotting when opponent has free drop  (onur alan+, Apr 2013) 
Take points  (fiore+, Feb 2005)  [GammOnLine forum]
Tips to improve cube handling  (Lucky Jim+, Jan 2010) 
When to free drop  (Dan Pelton+, Oct 2006) 
When to free drop  (Tom Keith+, July 2005)  [GammOnLine forum]
When to free drop  (Gregg Cattanach, Dec 2004)  [GammOnLine forum]
When to free drop  (Kit Woolsey, Feb 1998) 
When to free drop  (Chuck Bower, Jan 1998) 
Which format most favors the favorite?  (Daniel Murphy+, Jan 2006)  [GammOnLine forum]

[GammOnLine forum]  From GammOnLine       [Long message]  Long message       [Recommended reading]  Recommended reading       [Recent addition]  Recent addition
 

  Book Suggestions
Books
Cheating
Chouettes
Computer Dice
Cube Handling
Cube Handling in Races
Equipment
Etiquette
Extreme Gammon
Fun and frustration
GNU Backgammon
History
Jellyfish
Learning
Luck versus Skill
Magazines & E-zines
Match Archives
Match Equities
Match Play
Match Play at 2-away/2-away
Miscellaneous
Opening Rolls
Pip Counting
Play Sites
Probability and Statistics
Programming
Propositions
Puzzles
Ratings
Rollouts
Rules
Rulings
Snowie
Software
Source Code
Strategy--Backgames
Strategy--Bearing Off
Strategy--Checker play
Terminology
Theory
Tournaments
Uncategorized
Variations

 

Return to:  Backgammon Galore : Forum Archive Main Page