Forum Archive :
Cube Handling in Races
Dean Gay writes:
> +24-23-22-21-20-19-+---+18-17-16-15-14-13-+
> 13| X X | | |
> X| | | |
> O| O | | |
> 12| O O | | |
> +-1--2--3--4--5--6-+---+-7--8--9-10-11-12-+
>
> O on roll.
> Should O double?
>
> I'm wondering, what is the
> thought process that a good player goes through *over the board* to
> figure out these type of decisions?
>
> Dean
Here was my thought process: My pipcount is 12, my opponent's 9,
so I'm down 3 pips. I'll probably waste more than my opponent,
so I really trail by about 4 pips. In a long race, trailing by
about 4 pips and being on roll makes the chances about equal, but
here the race is so short that I think I'm the favorite even if
I'm down 4. Still, I can't be a big favorite, definitely less
than 60% cubeless.
This would be as far as I would go unless doubling were a close
decision with a cpw of more than 50% to less than 60%. For most
scores, it's not enough to double, especially since I can get
many efficient cubes after taking a roll. (For example, after
53 or 63, with two on the deuce point, vs your opponent's one
roll position, you have a very efficient money cube.)
Reality check:
Sconyers CD says O is only a little over 52% here, at the low
end of my rough guestimate. O's effective lead in the race is
a tad over 4 pips.
David Montgomery
monty on FIBS
monty@cs.umd.edu
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Cube Handling in Races
- Bower's modified Thorp count (Chuck Bower, July 1997)
- Calculating winning chances (Raccoon, Jan 2007)
- Calculating winning chances (OpenWheel+, Nov 2005)
- Doubling formulas (Michael J. Zehr, Jan 1995)
- Doubling in a long race (Brian Sheppard, Feb 1998)
- EPC example (adambulldog+, Jan 2011)
- EPC example: stack and straggler (neilkaz+, Jan 2009)
- EPC examples: stack and straggler (Carlo Melzi+, Dec 2008)
- Effective pipcount (Douglas Zare, Sept 2003)
- Effective pipcount and type of position (Douglas Zare, Jan 2004)
- Kleinman count (Øystein Johansen+, Feb 2001)
- Kleinman count (André Nicoulin, Sept 1998)
- Kleinman count (Chuck Bower, Mar 1998)
- Lamford's race forumla (Michael Schell, Aug 2001)
- N-roll vs n-roll bearoff (David Rubin+, July 2008)
- N-roll vs n-roll bearoff (Gregg Cattanach, Nov 2002)
- N-roll vs n-roll bearoff (Chuck Bower+, Dec 1997)
- Near end of game (Daniel Murphy, Mar 1997)
- Near end of game (David Montgomery, Feb 1997)
- Near end of game (Ron Karr, Feb 1997)
- One checker model (Kit Woolsey+, Feb 1998)
- Pip count percentage (Jeff Mogath+, Feb 2001)
- Pip-count formulas (Tom Keith+, June 2004)
- Thorp count (Chuck Bower, Jan 1997)
- Thorp count (Simon Woodhead, Sept 1991)
- Thorp count questions (Chuck Bower, Sept 1999)
- Value of a pip (Tom Keith, June 2004)
- Ward's racing formula (Marty Storer, Jan 1992)
- What's your favorite formula? (Timothy Chow+, Aug 2012)
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