Forum Archive :
Cube Handling in Races
The following chart shows the probability of winning for the
player-on-roll at different length races and various leads.
The chart is an average of the positions I rolled out.
---------------- Length of Race -------------------
Lead 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
-14: .101 .154 .193 .222 .244 .258 .270 .285 .297
-13: .114 .177 .214 .238 .265 .280 .290 .305 .317
-12: .149 .211 .246 .273 .295 .307 .315 .325 .334
-11: .177 .247 .279 .298 .319 .329 .338 .349 .357
-10: .210 .283 .309 .328 .347 .354 .363 .371 .375
-9: .250 .312 .338 .356 .369 .377 .382 .389 .395
-8: .288 .340 .359 .377 .387 .397 .408 .413 .415
-7: .333 .380 .410 .423 .422 .425 .430 .432 .435
-6: .384 .426 .442 .449 .450 .449 .452 .456 .459
-5: .430 .470 .480 .478 .475 .474 .477 .480 .482
-4: .494 .505 .503 .504 .508 .503 .501 .501 .500
-3: .530 .537 .540 .531 .529 .529 .526 .524 .521
-2: .569 .555 .553 .557 .559 .555 .549 .547 .547
-1: .616 .614 .600 .588 .577 .574 .573 .568 .565
0: .648 .643 .635 .619 .610 .604 .594 .588 .583
1: .691 .672 .654 .643 .634 .624 .616 .610 .602
2: .727 .707 .693 .671 .655 .645 .636 .630 .622
3: .762 .735 .712 .693 .676 .667 .657 .648 .641
4: .782 .760 .741 .718 .700 .690 .677 .667 .661
5: .806 .780 .764 .741 .726 .712 .698 .689 .680
6: .835 .805 .786 .767 .748 .732 .717 .708 .698
7: .856 .828 .800 .776 .765 .753 .734 .720 .712
8: .871 .850 .828 .800 .780 .767 .753 .739 .728
9: .890 .866 .842 .816 .799 .786 .770 .755 .744
10: .907 .883 .856 .831 .815 .802 .786 .775 .763
AvgPip: .033 .029 .027 .025 .024 .022 .021 .020 .019
Tom
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Cube Handling in Races
- Bower's modified Thorp count (Chuck Bower, July 1997)
- Calculating winning chances (Raccoon, Jan 2007)
- Calculating winning chances (OpenWheel+, Nov 2005)
- Doubling formulas (Michael J. Zehr, Jan 1995)
- Doubling in a long race (Brian Sheppard, Feb 1998)
- EPC example (adambulldog+, Jan 2011)
- EPC example: stack and straggler (neilkaz+, Jan 2009)
- EPC examples: stack and straggler (Carlo Melzi+, Dec 2008)
- Effective pipcount (Douglas Zare, Sept 2003)
- Effective pipcount and type of position (Douglas Zare, Jan 2004)
- Kleinman count (Øystein Johansen+, Feb 2001)
- Kleinman count (André Nicoulin, Sept 1998)
- Kleinman count (Chuck Bower, Mar 1998)
- Lamford's race forumla (Michael Schell, Aug 2001)
- N-roll vs n-roll bearoff (David Rubin+, July 2008)
- N-roll vs n-roll bearoff (Gregg Cattanach, Nov 2002)
- N-roll vs n-roll bearoff (Chuck Bower+, Dec 1997)
- Near end of game (Daniel Murphy, Mar 1997)
- Near end of game (David Montgomery, Feb 1997)
- Near end of game (Ron Karr, Feb 1997)
- One checker model (Kit Woolsey+, Feb 1998)
- Pip count percentage (Jeff Mogath+, Feb 2001)
- Pip-count formulas (Tom Keith+, June 2004)
- Thorp count (Chuck Bower, Jan 1997)
- Thorp count (Simon Woodhead, Sept 1991)
- Thorp count questions (Chuck Bower, Sept 1999)
- Value of a pip (Tom Keith, June 2004)
- Ward's racing formula (Marty Storer, Jan 1992)
- What's your favorite formula? (Timothy Chow+, Aug 2012)
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