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I analysed the opening moves in a 7 point match with Snowie (3Ply, Huge, 50%).
From match score 0-0 up to to 6-6.
The equities are the average equities of that move at all possible scores.
65: 24/13 (0.000), 24/13 13/8 (-0.043)
24/18 13/8 comes close (-0.014 - -0.020) at scores:
5-6, 5-6 Cr(awford), 4-6, 3-6, 3-6 Cr, 1-6 Cr and 0-6
64: 24/14 (-0.006), 24/18 13/9 (-0.012), 8/2 6/2 (-0.020)
24/14 is always best at equal scores and while leading,
is also best trailing at most scores,
but is an error at scores:
5-6 Cr (-0.040) (but best move at 5-6), 3-5 (-0.068), 4-6 (-0.041), 3-6
(-0.037).
8/2 6/2 is to play at 5-6 Cr and 3-6 Cr (but *not* at other Cr scores), 3-5,
4-6, 3-6, and 1-6.
24/18 13/9 is best (or close to best) at 4-5 and trailing with 3 points (but
not at 3-6)
63: 24/18 13/10 (-0.003), 24/15 (-0.005)
24/18 13/10 if favorite while trailing. Also if leading or equal up to a
score of 3 (1-x, 2-x, 3-x).
24/15 is favorite at other scores.
62: 24/18 13/11 (0.000), 24/16 (-0.023)
24/18 13/11 is best at all scores.
61: 13/7 8/7 (0.000)
Only other possible move (-0.044) is 24/18 24/23 at score 5-6.
54: 24/20 13/8 (0.000), 13/8 13/9 (-0.025), 24/15 (-0.033)
24/20 13/8 is always good.
24/15 is only best at 5-6.
13/8 13/9 comes in first at 5-6 Cr, 3-5 and 4-6.
53: 8/3 6/3 (-0.001), 24/21 13/8 (-0.021)
8/3 6/3 is OK at all scores.
Yet: 24/21 13/8 is best at 5-5, 6-5 Cr, 6-2 (Cr), 6-1 (Cr), 6-0 (Cr)
52: 24/22 13/8 (-0.004), 13/8 13/11 (-0.007)
24/22 13/8: when leading or equal
13/8 13/11 while trailing, but *not* at 5-6, 4-6 Cr, 2-6 Cr and 0-6 Cr (but
the equity is max -0.008)
51: 24/23 13/8 (0.000), 13/8 6/5 (-0.032), 24/18 (-0.037)
At all scores: 24/23 13/8.
13/8 6/5 comes close at 6-5 (cube is coming) and 3-5.
43: 24/20 13/10 (-0.003), 24/21 13/9 (-0.007), 13/9 13/10 (-0.008), 24/20
24/21 (-0.012)
Leading and equal, 24/20 13/10 is always best or close best. 24/21 13/9 is
second there.
Trailing....
24/20 24/21 at score 5-6.
13/9 13/10 is best at other scores, but *not* 4-6 Cr, 2-6 Cr, 1-6 and 0-6
Cr.
24/20 13/10 is error at 3-5.
42: 8/4 6/4 (0.000)
Only at score 5-6 24/20 13/11 is thinkable (-0.042)
41: 24/23 13/9 (0.000), 13/8 (-0.022), 24/20 24/23 (-0.024)
24/23 13/9 at all scores, except (again!) 5-6.
24/20 24/23 is best at 5-6.
32: 24/21 13/11 (-0.001), 13/10 13/11 (-0.014), 24/22 13/10 (-0.026)
24/21 13/11 covers for all scores.
13/10 13/11 is better at 5-6 Cr, 3-5, 4-6, 3-6, 2-6, 1-6 Cr and 0-6.
31: not typing this one.
21: 24/23 13/11 (-0.001), 13/11 6/5 (-0.016)
24/23 13/11 for almost all scores.
13/11 6/5 at 3-5 (+0.028) and 4-5 (+0.015).
Overall....
It's remarkable ... at least for one being new to backgammon :
for scores up to 3 for both players (x-y with 0 <= x <= 3 and 0 <= y <= 3)
one notices the same moves coming in as best.
Once one player reaches -3, -2 or -1, there are some 'surprises'.
Especially the trailer - while at -4 and -2 - has to be carefull to play
'automatically'. Some 'normal' moves are errors here.
Crawford and post-crawford games ask for 'be carefull' (no gammon needed
for leader, but gammon could come handy for trailer).
Remark:
Don't shoot me if some figures are wrong.
I just finished this. It is not 'full proof' yet.
Louis Nardy Pillards
BBL
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