Probability and Statistics

 Losing after bearing off 14 checkers

 From: Daniel Murphy Address: raccoon@cityraccoon.com Date: 27 July 1999 Subject: Re: FIBS Dice Forum: rec.games.backgammon Google: 379dcfcc.31260837@news.inet.tele.dk

```How unusual is this? Dunno. I've mentioned already that I've done it
and had it done to me more than twice in rea life, but here's 2-3 more
datapoints:

(1) According to rollouts by Backgammon Magazine editor Harald
Johanni, IF you have a closed board with well distributed spares when
you hit that last checker, you should win about 3% of the time.

(2) And Bob got an LOL out of this when I mentioned to him on FIBS:
This past weekend at the Danish Doubles Championship tournament
(that's "real life"), I won a game in my first match after hitting the
last checker. And I'll remember this one for a while, because the cube
was in the middle for the entire game (forgetful opponent!).

(3) And there's someone else who might find Bob's experience unusual:

"One thing I always remember from those games [about 14-15
years ago ... in Redondo Beach/Long Beach ... at Annabelle's,
where they used to have Sunday bg tournaments]. I had lost against an
older Armenian guy. He had hit my very last piece to go on to win the
game and the match with it, something that hadn't/hasn't happened
before or after that. At the time I was in my mid-twenties at the most
and he had perhaps taught some "kid" a memorable lesson that
in bg, if it can happen then it can happen..." - Murat Kalinyaprak

Daniel Murphy
www.cityraccoon.com/
```

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Probability and Statistics

Average game and match length  (JP White, Dec 2000)
Average luck of each roll  (Timothy Chow+, Mar 2013)
Average luck of each roll  (Jørn Thyssen+, Feb 2004)
Calculating winning chances  (Douglas Zare, June 2000)
Chance of rolling x doubles in y rolls  (Raccoon+, July 2007)
Chance of rolling x or more pips in y rolls  (Tom Keith, Feb 2004)
Clumping of random numbers  (Gary Wong, Sept 1998)
Counting shots  (Koyunbaba+, June 2007)
Counting shots  (John Little+, Mar 2007)
Distribution of points per game  (Roland Sutter, June 1999)
Distribution of points per game  (Stig Eide+, Sept 1995)
Expected variation in points after a series of games  (Achim Müller+, Feb 1999)
How many games to decide who's better?  (Stephen Turner, Mar 1997)
How often is too often?  (Gary Wong, Oct 1998)
Losing after bearing off 14 checkers  (Daniel Murphy, July 1999)
Number of games per match  (Jason Lee+, Jan 2005)
Number of rolls to enter x checkers from bar  (Michael Depreli+, Mar 2011)
Visualizing odds  (Daithi, Mar 2011)

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