Magriel's NYT Columns 
At the Thanksgiving invitational tournament in Sarasota, Fla., a situation of this type came up. In the diagrammed position, Black, a local player, had closed out two of White’s men and was well on his way to winning the game and a possible gammon.
His only problem was to extricate his back man on the 23point from behind White’s broken 5point prime. To do this, Black needed to roll a 5, the only number with which to escape. He was concerned that if he failed to roll a 5 in the next few turns, he would be forced to continue moving forward with his spare men (on the 5 and 15points), and eventually break up his home board.
 Black to play 43. 
Black’s tactics, however, were misguided: they were a result of a commonplace optical illusion. In fact, every move Black makes will leave him exactly the same amount of time for his two spare men. With every play, he must move forward a total of 7 pips; and with every play he will have exactly the number of pips left over to move his spare men. Therefore the efficacy of moving a man to the 1point to gain time is illusory.


Further, the gammon in this situation is almost a 50–50 proposition, and any slight delay bearing off may well cost Black his chance for a double game.
Rollout
Tom Keith 2013 

Money play White owns 2cube Black rolls 43 1296 games with VR Checker play: 2ply Cube play: 3ply Red 
43:  Game  G  BG  Equity  
1  15/8 
W L 
.8033 .1967 
.4483 .0178 
.0060 .0006  +0.9651  (b)  
2  15/11, 5/2 
W L 
.7939 .2061 
.4326 .0200 
.0052 .0007  +0.9230  (0.0421)  
3  15/12, 5/1 
W L 
.7919 .2081 
.4308 .0213 
.0051 .0007  +0.9167  (0.0484)  (a) 

