Position 79, page 150
From Backgammon for Blood, by Bruce Becker

Should White
double to 2?

What to do when I have a closed board — a prime — and he has a man on the bar? I have taken off two of my men, with thirteen left to bear off.

Should I double? Well, let’s count it out. I need a minimum of seven throws (again not counting on doubles) to bear off. It may even require eight throws, if I have to make a “safe” move to avoid being hit. As for Black, he will probably require two throws to get in and two more to get this man around to his inner board. He probably will also be able to get both his men on the B11 and B8 points in on one throw.

Therefore, the probabilities are that Black will be able to start bearing off on his sixth throw. Consequently, the chances of my getting him on a gammon are not good; against this slight possibility is the larger danger of my having to leave a blot and his hitting it, which could suddenly turn the tables completely. So, in this case, I would throw the cube and hope he refuses it.

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Tom Keith 2013 
Money play
Centered cube
White on roll

1296 games with VR
Checker play: 3-ply
Cube play: XG Roller

Cube Action Game BG   Equity
No double W
+1.1235 x 
Double Take W
+2.2117 +1.0000 (0.1235)  *
Drop +1.0000

  White is too good to double  

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List of Positions from Backgammon for Blood

Backgammon for Blood (1974), by Bruce Becker

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