Notes on Methodology
To determine a player’s match equity from a given position, one must assume a set of underlying match equities that apply at the start of a game. For example, at the start of a game where one player needs two points to win the match and the opponent needs three points, the match equity of the leading player is 59% and the match equity of the trailing player is 41%. The set of start-of-game match equities that I use is shown in the table below.
A computer model developed by the author generates this match-equity table. The primary model parameter is the probability of a gammon in a cubeless game, which has been calibrated from empirical results.
In general, my match-equity table gives surprisingly high equities for the player who trails in the match. This is because the gammon parameter described above has been set to a relatively high value. The high value of the gammon parameter reflects the fact that gammons in cubeless games occur more frequently than most players realize.
Match Equity Table