From Better Backgammon, by Tim Holland
||White to play 3-2.|
The correct play is to move both men from your bar point to your 5 and 4 points. If Black maintains his position in your board (which he should be able to do since he has five men in his outer board to play with before he is forced to move any of the men in your board), you will be forced to leave a blot with the rolls of 6 and 5, 6 and 1, and 5 and 1. The resulting blot on your 8 point will be exposed to being hit with any 5, 4 and 1, or 6 and 1 (15 chances).
If you were to move both men from your 8 point to your 6 and 5 points, you will be forced to leave a blot with the rolls of 6 and 5, 5 and 4, double 5s, and 3s (the same number of chances of exposure as in the first play). The difference, however, is that the resulting blot, whether it be on your bar or 5 point, will be exposed to 20 chances of being hit versus 15 chances with the correct play.
An additional factor which must be taken into consideration is that by moving your two men on your bar, your two men on your 8 point will move in safely with 17 combinations. If you have two men on your bar, these men will move in safely with only 14 combinations.
Tom Keith 2013
Black owns 2-cube
White rolls 3-2
1296 games with VR
Checker play: 3-ply
Cube play: XG Roller