Position 71, page 124
From Backgammon, the Cruelest Game, by Barclay Cooke and Jon Bradshaw

14
MATCH TO 15
12
White to play 4-1.

White has a man on the bar and now rolls a 4-1. Ordinarily you are taught to try to save a double game, but in this instance it is irrelevant, since you have virtually nothing to lose. If your opponent gets to 14–14 in this particular game, he is not much better off than if he were at 14–13 with his doubling privilege restored. The small advantage of the free drop is forfeited by white if he decides to go for the win and thereby loses a gammon, but it is worth it to attempt to clinch the match on this game.

The main danger to watch for is the loss of a triple game. In this position, were white to come in on the 1 point and play the 4 elsewhere, he might even save a double game. But these should not be his tactics. If he comes in on the 4 point, hits black’s blot on his 5 point and gets away with this bold play, it is his best chance to win the game and the match even though he is a distinct underdog to do so. However, it is most important that he avoid losing a triple game, but oddly enough, by coming in on the 4 point instead of the 1, he has minimized this danger.

bar/21, 6/5*
Rollout

Tom Keith 2013
Match to 15
White 14c, Black 12
White rolls 4-1

1296 games with VR
Checker play: 3-ply
Cube play: XG Roller
XGID=-a-B-aC-C-a-BB--Abbcc-b-AA:0:0:1:41:14:12:1:15

 4-1: Game G BG Equity 1 bar/21, 6/5* W L .3353 .6647 .0820 .4488 .0157 .0485 −0.4509 2 bar/24, 16/12 W L .2823 .7177 .0547 .3178 .0071 .0177 −0.4871 (0.0362)

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List of Positions from Backgammon, the Cruelest Game

Backgammon, the Cruelest Game (1974), by Barclay Cooke and Jon Bradshaw