Fools (Often) Rush In and Mess Things Up
Paul Magriel, 1978
New York Times, March 23, 1978
Clermont Club The Clermont Club in London is known as a center of advanced backgammon activity for Europe. On any weekday afternoon several of Europe’s strongest players can be found either doing battle with each other or waiting to ensnare lesser players.

The diagrammed position occurred there recently in a dramatic high-stakes game during which the lead changed many times.

Black had already redoubled to the eighth level and reached a favorable position when he rolled the “clincher,” 1-1’s.

Black to play 1-1.

He played 3/1*, 2/1, and 21/20, closing White out by making the 1-point, and moving his back man one pip forward. Black seemed certain of victory, but disaster struck unexpectedly.

(a) 3/1*, 2/1, 21/20

He next rolled 4-4’s and to his horror discovered he could not play the entire roll without breaking his home board: Unfortunately, the man on the 20-point could move forward only one 4 before being blocked by White’s men on the 12-point.

Black, unnerved by this unexpected turn of events, played 20/16, 11/7, and 6/2(2), breaking his 6-point. White then rolled 6-1, reentering and hitting Black on the 7-point. When Black stayed out, White redoubled to 16. Black, with another man exposed on the 16-point, wisely decided to pass, and so cut his loss to eight points.

(b) 3/1*, 2/1, 11/10

This tragedy could have been averted if Black had not let down his guard after rolling 1-1’s. The correct play is 3/1*, 2/1, and 11/10 with the last 1.

By keeping his back man on the 21-point, Black could have avoided being blocked by 4-4’s. In fact, all combinations, doubles included, would now play safely. Even though 4-4 was a remote possibility, there was no reason to chance it when a totally risk-free alternative was available.

Rollout 
XG logo
Tom Keith 2013 
Money play
White owns 8-cube
Black rolls 1-1

1296 games with VR
Checker play: 2-ply
Cube play: 3-ply Red

1-1: Game BG   Equity
1 11/10, 3/1*, 2/1 W
L
.9817
.0183
.6531
.0000
.0007
.0000
+1.6090 x  (b)
2 21/20, 3/1*, 2/1 W
L
.9797
.0203
.6510
.0001
.0008
.0000
+1.6022 (0.0068)  (a)

In the actual game, after misplaying 1-1’s, Black then compounded his error. When he rolled 4-4, he realized his original mistake, but was flustered and so didn’t bother to think through the next play carefully. With 4-4’s, he should have played 11/3 and 6/2(2). By playing with only one blot (exposed man) he would have made White’s winning task much harder.

Rollout 
XG logo
Tom Keith 2013 
Money play
White owns 8-cube
Black rolls 4-4

1296 games with VR
Checker play: 2-ply
Cube play: 3-ply Red

4-4: Game BG   Equity
1 11/3, 6/2(2) W
L
.8930
.1070
.3011
.0015
.0002
.0000
+1.0414 x 
2 20/16, 11/7, 6/2(2) W
L
.8901
.1099
.3001
.0086
.0005
.0001
+1.0281 (0.0133) 

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March 16, 1978
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March 30, 1978

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