Match Equity Table
Roy Friedman, 1989
World Class Backgammon, Move by Move, © 1989 Roy Friedman

This is an excerpt from the 1989 book
World Class Backgammon, Move by Move.

## Notes on Methodology

To determine a player’s match equity from a given position, one must assume a set of underlying match equities that apply at the start of a game. For example, at the start of a game where one player needs two points to win the match and the opponent needs three points, the match equity of the leading player is 59% and the match equity of the trailing player is 41%. The set of start-of-game match equities that I use is shown in the table below.

A computer model developed by the author generates this match-equity table. The primary model parameter is the probability of a gammon in a cubeless game, which has been calibrated from empirical results.

In general, my match-equity table gives surprisingly high equities for the player who trails in the match. This is because the gammon parameter described above has been set to a relatively high value. The high value of the gammon parameter reflects the fact that gammons in cubeless games occur more frequently than most players realize.

## Match Equity Table

Match Equity Table for a 9-Point Match
Points needed to win the match
 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 50 66 75 80 83 87 90 92 94 2 34 50 59 64 72 77 82 85 88 3 25 41 50 56 63 69 74 78 82 4 20 36 44 50 57 63 68 72 77 5 17 28 37 43 50 56 62 66 71 6 13 23 31 37 44 50 56 60 65 7 10 18 26 32 38 44 50 55 60 8 8 15 22 38 34 49 45 50 55 9 6 12 18 23 29 35 40 45 50