From The Backgammon Book, by Oswald Jacoby and John R. Crawford
||White to play 3-2.|
After arriving at the position shown in Diagram 27, you double and proceed to roll a 3-2. You complain a little to the gods that plague backgammon players, and then settle down to make your best play. You can move your blot five, three, two or no points, but you can’t bring him to safety.
You don’t have to count to see that you should either move him all the way or not at all; moving him three or two exposes him to far too many possible hits. At first glance you would expect to be in less danger where you are since you are exposed to only one direct shot, but you are better off moving all the way up to your nine point. There are seventeen ways to shoot a 6, plus four ways to shoot 5-2 and 4-3, or twenty-one total ways you can be hit where you are by one of black’s men on your seven or eight point. But there are only twenty ways to hit you with a 2 or 1 if you move up.
Furthermore, there is another reason for you to move up. Once you do so, if you are not hit right away you are going to be home free on your next roll (barring double 1). If you stay where you are, double 3, double 6, or any roll that totals six or less will still leave you in trouble (and there are thirteen such rolls).
Tom Keith 2013
Black owns 2-cube
White rolls 3-2
1296 games with VR
Checker play: 3-ply
Cube play: XG Roller