Backgammon Books

How to Maximize Your Profits and Optimize Your Cube Decisions Using the Kelly System

  AUTHOR: Michelin Chabot
  YEAR: 1983
  PUBLISHER: Michelin Chabot
  CITY: Montreal, Quebec
  ISBN: 0-9691012-1-X
  BINDING: Softcover, staple bound
  PAGES: ii+84
  SIZE: 30 cm high, 22 cm wide
To make money in backgammon, you need two elements: a skill advantage, and good money management principles, which mainly means correctly establishing your bet and handling the cube properly. Chabot introduces an additional goal: that of maximizing the rate of increase of your wealth. John L. Kelly Jr. established a theory known as the Kelly theory which permits us to derive our optimal bet and to optimize our cube decisions.

Chapter 1.  The Kelly money management system

Chapter 2.  The Kelly system applied to games in general
   2.1. The winning probability is constant
   2.2. The winning probability is variable

Chapter 3.  Adjustments for backgammon
   3.1. Calculation of your expectation
   3.2. Corrections to be made when the bet is increased after a specific number of games
   3.3. Establish your optimal bet for matches
   3.4. Establish your optimal bet for money games
   3.5. Establish your "optimal entrance fee" for tournaments
   3.6. How to handle "Double or Nothing" propositions

Chapter 4.  Effect of the Kelly Criterion on the doubling cube theory
   4.1. The incredible Chabot paradoxical proposition
   4.2. Criteria to determine if you should double
   4.3. Criteria to determine if you should drop, take or beaver

Chapter 5.  Dilemma related to the Kelly theory in backgammon

Chapter 6.  Principles of Money Management
   6.1. The ten commandments of money management
   6.2. You are the stronger player
   6.3. You are the weaker player


Appendix A.  Danny Kleinman's article concerning expectations
Appendix B.  Answer to Kleinman's article
Appendix C.  Derivation of coefficient K2
Appendix D.  Mathematical analysis of the incredible Chabot paradoxical proposition
Appendix E.  Derivation of Diagrams 4 and 5

  COVER: (1) How to establish your optimal bet.
(2) Why the standard 3 to 1 rule is now a thing of the past.
(3) How to benefit from the ten-commandments of money management.
(4) The secret behind the "Incredible Chabot Paradoxical Proposition."
(5) How to make more money faster than you ever did before.

Michelin Chabot graduated from Sherbrooke University in the Province of Quebec (Canada) as a civil engineer in 1972. He played chess seriously from 1964 to 1976, but gave it up to devote himself entirely to backgammon.

How Much Should You Bet?
Michelin Chabot
1982: Michelin Chabot, Montreal, Quebec

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