Game number 5

Moshe Tissona (4 pts) vs. Jon Royset (1 pts) (Match to 25)

[First Game] [Previous Game] [Next Game] [Last Game]

Match Information

Moshe Tissona's rating: 0 (Exp 0)
Jon Royset's rating: 0 (Exp 0)
Date: July 13, 2003
Event: World Championship 2003
Round: Final
Place: Monte Carlo
Annotator: Casper van der Tak, Chuck Bower, Alex Zamanian, Tom Suzanski, Christian Toth and GNU 0.14

Annotation

Casper van der Tak:

Introduction

Royset takes an early advantage in this game. A 44 forces Tissona to attack, and when Royset continues to dance a lucky semi-blitz develops. A 66 offers Tissona a choice between a full out blitz approach and a more positional alternative. Tissona chooses the latter and cashes after Royset anchors.

Move number 1: Moshe Tissona to play 62

+-12-11-10--9--8--7-+---+--6--5--4--3--2--1-+

+-13-14-15-16-17-18-+---+-19-20-21-22-23-24-+

Pip counts: Moshe Tissona 167, Jon Royset 167
Position ID: 4HPwATDgc/ABMA Match ID: MAArA0AACAAA

• Moshe Tissona moves 24/18 13/11

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	2	24/18 13/11	+0.028
			51.7% 13.4% 0.6% - 48.3% 13.4% 0.4%
	2	2	24/16	- 0.013 (- 0.041)
			50.8% 12.1% 0.4% - 49.2% 13.5% 0.4%
	3	2	13/5	- 0.020 (- 0.048)
			49.9% 14.5% 0.6% - 50.1% 13.8% 0.6%
	4	2	13/11 13/7	- 0.059 (- 0.086)
			49.1% 14.4% 0.7% - 50.9% 14.8% 0.8%
	5	2	24/22 24/18	- 0.065 (- 0.093)
			49.6% 11.9% 0.6% - 50.4% 14.5% 0.4%

Move number 2: Jon Royset to play 21

Pip counts: Moshe Tissona 159, Jon Royset 167
Position ID: 4HPkQSDgc/ABMA Match ID: cAklA0AACAAA

• Jon Royset moves 13/11 8/7*

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	2	13/11 8/7*	- 0.060
			47.9% 13.5% 0.6% - 52.1% 15.2% 0.9%
	2	2	24/22 8/7*	- 0.074 (- 0.014)
			47.5% 12.6% 0.5% - 52.5% 14.2% 0.6%
	3	2	8/7*/5	- 0.144 (- 0.084)
			45.9% 12.4% 0.5% - 54.1% 16.0% 0.9%
	4	2	13/11 6/5	- 0.182 (- 0.122)
			44.9% 11.7% 0.4% - 55.1% 15.5% 1.0%
	5	2	24/21	- 0.185 (- 0.124)
			44.7% 10.1% 0.3% - 55.3% 13.7% 0.4%

Move number 3: Moshe Tissona to play 32

Pip counts: Moshe Tissona 166, Jon Royset 164
Position ID: 4GvkATDgc+QBUA Match ID: MIEpA0AACAAA

• Moshe Tissona moves bar/22 24/22

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	2	bar/22 24/22	+0.025
			50.7% 13.4% 0.5% - 49.3% 11.6% 0.3%
	2	2	bar/22 13/11	-0.028 ( -0.054)
			50.3% 13.9% 0.7% - 49.7% 15.0% 0.5%
	3	2	bar/23 13/10	-0.038 ( -0.063)
			49.8% 15.0% 0.9% - 50.2% 15.6% 0.7%
	4	2	bar/23 24/21	-0.089 ( -0.114)
			48.8% 13.2% 0.8% - 51.2% 15.7% 0.6%
	5	2	bar/22 11/9	-0.094 ( -0.120)
			48.5% 13.7% 0.7% - 51.5% 15.7% 0.6%

Move number 4: Jon Royset to play 62

Pip counts: Moshe Tissona 161, Jon Royset 164
Position ID: 4HPkAQzga+QBMA Match ID: cAkrA0AACAAA

• Jon Royset moves 24/22 13/7

Ply

Move

Equity

11/5 7/5

+0.014

49.8%	11.9%	0.7%	-	50.2%	13.0%	0.5%	-0.011	+0.074
0.2%	0.3%	0.2%	-	0.2%	0.2%	0.0%	0.009	0.020

Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.

648 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 1175100928

Play: 0-ply cubeful [expert]

Cube: 2-ply cubeful 33% speed

•

24/22 13/7

-0.036 ( -0.050)

49.5%	11.2%	0.4%	-	50.5%	13.5%	0.5%	-0.030	+0.024
0.3%	0.2%	0.1%	-	0.3%	0.2%	0.1%	0.007	0.018

Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.

648 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 1175100928

Play: 0-ply cubeful [expert]

Cube: 2-ply cubeful 33% speed

13/11 13/7

-0.046 ( -0.060)

49.3%	11.0%	0.5%	-	50.7%	14.0%	0.6%	-0.042	+0.015
0.3%	0.2%	0.1%	-	0.3%	0.2%	0.1%	0.007	0.018

Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.

648 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 1175100928

Play: 0-ply cubeful [expert]

Cube: 2-ply cubeful 33% speed

13/7 6/4

-0.037 ( -0.051)

49.0% 12.6% 0.4% - 51.0% 14.9% 0.7%

13/7 11/9

-0.086 ( -0.100)

47.6% 11.9% 0.4% - 52.4% 14.7% 0.5%

Annotation

Casper van der Tak: Even though the resulting checker distribution is a bit awkward, making the 5-point is better than making the bar. I'd make the 5-point, but am surprised at the difference in equity that the rollout indicates. I should not be so surprised: after all, a 21 after an earlier 61 is almost always used to make the 5-point even though that leaves a blot on the bar.

Kit Woolsey: My guess was that this was simply an oversight on Royset's part. He was looking for a six to cover the blot on the bar point, saw he had rolled a six, instantly played 13/7, and then looked around for a good two. I constantly tell my students: Don't play part of your roll until you have examined all the candidates and are convinced that the part of the roll you are playing is a member of each of your possible choices. If you follow this philosophy, you will avoid oversights such as this.

Move number 5: Moshe Tissona to play 32

Pip counts: Moshe Tissona 161, Jon Royset 156
Position ID: 4NvIASTgc+QBDA Match ID: MIEpA0AACAAA

• Moshe Tissona moves 13/11 6/3*

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	2	13/11 6/3*	-0.096
			47.8% 12.6% 0.4% - 52.2% 13.5% 0.4%
	2	2	6/3/1	-0.107 ( -0.011)
			47.0% 13.1% 0.3% - 53.0% 12.9% 0.4%
	3	2	13/11 13/10	-0.119 ( -0.023)
			46.7% 11.6% 0.3% - 53.3% 11.8% 0.3%
	4	2	13/8	-0.160 ( -0.064)
			45.5% 10.8% 0.2% - 54.5% 11.6% 0.3%
	5	2	13/11 8/5	-0.199 ( -0.102)
			45.1% 11.4% 0.3% - 54.9% 14.0% 0.4%

Annotation

Casper van der Tak: There are three plays to look at: 13/11 13/10; 13/11 6/3*; 6/3*/1*. 13/11 13/10 makes a point and creates builders, but leaves Royset with a free hand to improve and leaves the equivalent of a direct 11-shot in indirects. 6/3*/1* and 13/11 6/3* are much closer. I'd go along with Tissona's play; after hitting 6/3*, making the 11 seems slightly more useful than putting an additional checker on the bar. Assets are everything!

Move number 6: Jon Royset to play 11

Pip counts: Moshe Tissona 156, Jon Royset 159
Position ID: xHPMAQzg28gBUA Match ID: cIkkA0AACAAA

• Jon Royset moves bar/23 6/5(2)

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	2	bar/23 6/5(2)	+0.315
			58.8% 14.7% 0.5% - 41.2% 11.6% 0.4%
	2	2	bar/22*/21	+0.296 ( -0.019)
			56.6% 16.6% 0.6% - 43.4% 10.1% 0.2%
	3	2	bar/22* 11/10	+0.274 ( -0.042)
			55.9% 16.5% 0.6% - 44.1% 10.2% 0.3%
	4	2	bar/22* 24/23	+0.268 ( -0.048)
			56.1% 15.7% 0.6% - 43.9% 10.2% 0.2%
	5	2	bar/24 11/10 6/5(2)	+0.250 ( -0.065)
			57.3% 13.5% 0.4% - 42.7% 12.2% 0.4%

Annotation

Casper van der Tak: Royset has three plays to look at: B/22*/21; B/23 6/5(2); B/24 11/10 6/5(2). The last play is motivated by the wish to create an additional builder for the 4-point, but is the weakest. The builder is not that productive, while the split makes a bid for an advanced anchor, which is important now that Tissona has built a semi-advanced anchor, and puts pressure on Tissona's blot. So B/24 11/10 6/5(2) is out. B/22*/21 is a reasonable alternative, gaining a lot in the range, yet making the 5-point builds a nice 4-prime and is hard to pass up. I'd make Royset's play as well.

Move number 7: Moshe Tissona to play 44

Pip counts: Moshe Tissona 156, Jon Royset 155
Position ID: sNvIASjEc8wBDA Match ID: MAEyA0AACAAA

• Moshe Tissona moves 11/3 6/2*(2)

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	2	11/3 6/2*(2)	-0.175
			44.0% 15.6% 0.5% - 56.0% 13.1% 0.4%
	2	2	8/4(2) 6/2*(2)	-0.264 ( -0.088)
			42.6% 15.9% 0.6% - 57.4% 15.7% 0.7%
	3	2	11/3 8/4(2)	-0.369 ( -0.194)
			39.7% 12.9% 0.4% - 60.3% 14.6% 0.5%
	4	2	11/3(2)	-0.377 ( -0.202)
			39.0% 11.0% 0.2% - 61.0% 13.0% 0.3%
	5	2	13/9(2) 11/7(2)	-0.398 ( -0.222)
			39.5% 10.7% 0.3% - 60.5% 14.5% 0.4%

Annotation

Casper van der Tak: Creating a three-point board, putting Royset on the bar, and leaving no direct returns is clearly best.

Move number 8: Jon Royset to play 62

Pip counts: Moshe Tissona 140, Jon Royset 157
Position ID: NubIAQyw28gBUA Match ID: cAkrA0AACAAA

• Jon Royset cannot move

Alert: unlucky roll! ( -0.323)

#		Ply	Move	Equity
			Cannot move

Move number 9: Moshe Tissona to play 65

Pip counts: Moshe Tissona 140, Jon Royset 157
Position ID: sNvIAVA25sgBDA Match ID: MAE3A0AACAAA

• Moshe Tissona moves 22/11

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	2	22/11	+0.217
			54.9% 20.0% 0.9% - 45.1% 11.8% 0.3%
	2	2	22/16 11/6	+0.131 ( -0.086)
			51.9% 21.3% 1.0% - 48.1% 13.7% 0.4%
	3	2	22/16 13/8	+0.003 ( -0.214)
			49.2% 19.6% 0.9% - 50.8% 15.2% 0.6%
	4	2	22/16 8/3	-0.069 ( -0.286)
			47.5% 18.5% 0.9% - 52.5% 16.0% 0.7%
	5	0	13/7 11/6	-0.139 ( -0.356)
			43.8% 18.0% 0.5% - 56.2% 12.4% 0.4%

Move number 10: Jon Royset to play 62

Pip counts: Moshe Tissona 129, Jon Royset 157
Position ID: NuaYAwiw28gBUA Match ID: cAkrA0AACAAA

• Jon Royset cannot move

Alert: unlucky roll! ( -0.346)

#		Ply	Move	Equity
			Cannot move

Move number 11: Moshe Tissona to play 66

Pip counts: Moshe Tissona 129, Jon Royset 157
Position ID: sNvIAVA25pgDCA Match ID: MAE7A0AACAAA

• Moshe Tissona moves 22/10 11/5(2)

Cube decision
2-ply cubeless equity		+0.387	(Money: +0.381)
	60.0% 26.7% 1.1% - 40.0% 9.5% 0.3%
Cubeful equities:
1.	No double	+0.499
2.	Double, pass	+1.000	(+0.501)
3.	Double, take	+0.417	(-0.082)
Proper cube action:		No double, take (14.1%)

Alert: very lucky roll! ( +0.605)

Ply

Move

Equity

•

22/10 11/5(2)

+1.026

75.0%	33.9%	0.8%	-	25.0%	3.3%	0.1%	+0.815	+1.026
0.2%	0.2%	0.0%	-	0.2%	0.1%	0.0%	0.004	0.010

Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.

872 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 1174505984

Play: 0-ply cubeful [expert]

Cube: 2-ply cubeful 33% speed

13/1*(2)

+0.989 ( -0.037)

70.7%	54.8%	1.2%	-	29.3%	5.4%	0.2%	+0.923	+0.989
0.2%	0.2%	0.1%	-	0.2%	0.1%	0.0%	0.005	0.009

Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.

872 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 1174505984

Play: 0-ply cubeful [expert]

Cube: 2-ply cubeful 33% speed

22/16 11/5(2) 8/2

+0.858 ( -0.168)

68.9% 37.1% 1.4% - 31.1% 5.5% 0.1%

13/1* 11/5(2)

+0.857 ( -0.169)

66.9% 48.1% 1.5% - 33.1% 6.8% 0.2%

22/16 13/7 11/5(2)

+0.856 ( -0.171)

69.4% 40.6% 1.6% - 30.6% 5.7% 0.2%

Annotation

Casper van der Tak: Tissona makes a quiet play instead of 13/1*(2). Cube access is an important factor here: 13/1*(2) potentially leads to sharper turnarounds because of the back checker that still needs to escape, while after the move played he rates to have a strong double in almost all variations if he does not elect to play on for the gammon.

Bots: Royset's choice is approved by Snowie, but GNU prefers 13/1*(2).

Move number 12: Jon Royset to play 62

Pip counts: Moshe Tissona 105, Jon Royset 157
Position ID: NpsTBwCw28gBUA Match ID: cAkrA0AACAAA

• Jon Royset cannot move

#		Ply	Move	Equity
			Cannot move

Move number 13: Moshe Tissona to play 62

Pip counts: Moshe Tissona 105, Jon Royset 157
Position ID: sNvIAVA2mxMHAA Match ID: MAErA0AACAAA

• Moshe Tissona moves 13/5

Cube decision
2-ply cubeless equity		+1.070	(Money: +1.061)
	79.1% 50.2% 1.1% - 20.9% 3.3% 0.1%
Cubeful equities:
1.	No double	+1.207
2.	Double, take	+1.947	(+0.740)
3.	Double, pass	+1.000	(-0.207)
Proper cube action:		Too good to double, pass (21.8%)

#		Ply	Move	Equity
	1	2	13/7 8/6	+1.160
			77.2% 49.0% 1.4% - 22.8% 3.1% 0.1%
•	2	2	13/5	+1.130 ( -0.030)
			76.8% 43.0% 1.2% - 23.2% 2.4% 0.0%
	3	2	13/11 8/2	+1.087 ( -0.073)
			74.7% 42.0% 1.2% - 25.3% 3.5% 0.1%
	4	2	8/6 8/2	+1.082 ( -0.078)
			73.7% 44.4% 1.3% - 26.3% 4.0% 0.1%
	5	2	10/2	+1.060 ( -0.100)
			73.4% 39.3% 1.1% - 26.6% 3.2% 0.0%

Annotation

Casper van der Tak: Tissona correctly plays on for the gammon. 62 is interesting: 13/5 looks like the normal play, yet the sharp 13/7 8/6 creates more builders for the 4- and ace point, provides a slot for the bar itself should Tissona decide that he needs it, and duplicates 43 and 46, so that it only pays off to 61. I would not have found this play over the board, but it looks better than 13/5.

Kit Woolsey: I prefer 13/5. The key is that Tissona is playing on for a gammon, so he has cube access. He can afford a small swing against him since he will still be able to cash, but he can't afford a one roll disaster. Thus, even though he is playing for the gammon and 13/7, 8/6 will get more gammons, I believe he should make the more conservative play. If he had already doubled, then the bigger play would be more attractive.

Move number 14: Jon Royset to play 61

Pip counts: Moshe Tissona 97, Jon Royset 157
Position ID: NjcnBgCw28gBUA Match ID: cAknA0AACAAA

• Jon Royset moves bar/24 11/5

#		Ply	Move	Equity
	1	2	bar/24 13/7	-1.000
			26.2% 2.6% 0.0% - 73.8% 18.9% 1.1%
•	2	2	bar/24 11/5	-1.000 ( +0.000)
			26.0% 2.6% 0.0% - 74.0% 18.9% 1.0%
	3	2	bar/24 8/2	-1.000 ( +0.000)
			22.9% 2.3% 0.0% - 77.1% 21.0% 1.4%
	4	2	bar/24 7/1	-1.000 ( +0.000)
			20.9% 2.1% 0.0% - 79.1% 22.3% 1.3%
	5	2	bar/18	-1.199 ( -0.199)
			20.8% 3.1% 0.1% - 79.2% 50.3% 1.0%

Move number 15: Moshe Tissona doubles to 2

Pip counts: Moshe Tissona 97, Jon Royset 150
Position ID: cLfBATA2NycGAA Match ID: MBkgA0AACAAA

• Jon Royset rejects

Cube decision
2-ply cubeless equity		+0.657	(Money: +0.653)
	74.0% 18.9% 1.0% - 26.0% 2.6% 0.0%
Cubeful equities:
1.	Double, pass	+1.000
2.	Double, take	+1.033	(+0.033)
3.	No double	+0.847	(-0.153)
Proper cube action:		Double, pass

Annotation

Casper van der Tak: The pass is correct, but surprisingly close, indicating the importance of filling in holes when coming home against deep anchor games.

Kit Woolsey: I don't understand the bot evaluation. With a cubeless equity of .657 and only a moderate gammon threat, I don't see how the pass can be close? There has to be something wrong here. Personally I would make Tissona's chances even better, and I believe this is a monster pass.

Moshe Tissona wins 1 point

Game statistics for game 5
Player	Moshe Tissona	Jon Royset
Checker play statistics
Total moves	7	7
Unforced moves	7	4
Moves marked very good	0	0
Moves marked good	0	0
Moves marked interesting	0	0
Moves unmarked	6	6
Moves marked doubtful	1	1
Moves marked bad	0	0
Moves marked very bad	0	0
Error rate (total)	-0.030 ( -0.098%)	-0.050 ( -0.165%)
Error rate (pr. move)	-0.004 ( -0.014% )	-0.013 ( -0.041%)
Chequer play rating	World class	Intermediate
Luck statistics
Rolls marked very lucky	1	0
Rolls marked lucky	0	0
Rolls unmarked	6	5
Rolls marked unlucky	0	2
Rolls marked very unlucky	0	0
Luck rate (total)	+0.656 ( +2.155%)	-0.642 ( -2.109%)
Luck rate (pr. move)	+0.094 ( +0.308%)	-0.092 ( -0.301%)
Luck rating	Go to Las Vegas immediately	Go to bed
Cube statistics
Total cube decisions	7	8
Close or actual cube decisions	3	2
Doubles	1	0
Takes	0	0
Passes	0	1
Missed doubles around DP	0	0
Missed doubles around TG	0	0
Wrong doubles around DP	0	0
Wrong doubles around TG	0	0
Wrong takes	0	0
Wrong passes	0	0
Error rate (total)	0	0
Error rate (per cube decision)	0	0
Cube decision rating	Supernatural	Supernatural
Overall rating
Error rate (total)	-0.030 ( -0.098%)	-0.050 ( -0.165%)
Error rate (per decision)	-0.003 ( -0.010% )	-0.008 ( -0.027%)
Equivalent Snowie error rate	-2.1	-3.6
Overall rating	World class	Advanced
Actual result	53.36%	46.64%
Luck adjusted result	49.10%	50.90%
Relative FIBS rating	-3.14	3.14

[First Game] [Previous Game] [Next Game] [Last Game]

Output generated Sat Aug 02 14:53:51 2003 by GNU Backgammon 0.14-devel 1.1227 030727 (HTML Export version 1.124)