Luck versus Skill

 How often to win with perfect play?

 From: Robert-Jan Veldhuizen Address: rjv1112@iname.com Date: 7 November 2000 Subject: Re: win percentage Forum: rec.games.backgammon Google: 5nlf0tkei0ovqh5p6psnp76vlakmcaae48@4ax.com

```> What percentage of games can one expect to win if one plays perfect
> backgammon?

Well, we don't know of course but one could make some sort of an
educated guess. It depends on the skill of the opponent of course. If he
also plays perfect backgammon, than you can't win more than 50% assuming
it's not decided yet who gets the first move.

Based on FIBS rating system, and what ratings the best bots have
achieved there compared to the average rating, I estimate that for
simple money play, a perfect playing bot would have a rating somewhere
between 2200 and 2500. Let's say it's 2350. Against an average FIBS
player with a rating of 1550, we get:

Rating difference D = 2350 - 1550 = 800

Probability of underdog to win a 1pt match: 1/(10^(800/2000)+1) = 28.5%

It's not clear how matchplay and FIBS rating system for it translate to
money, but I think the winning percentage for the underdog is somewhere
between these values, and closer to the two point match, since money
games involve (back-)gammons and full cube usage.

So, my estimation would be something like "a perfect player would win
around 77% of the points (probably also games, but not necessarily) in a
money game against an average FIBS player, translating into an average
turn-out of 0.77-0.23= 0.54 points per game."

Robert-Jan/Zorba
```

### Luck versus Skill

Are good players just luckier?  (Douglas Zare, Sept 2000)
Are luck and skill related?  (Eskimo+, Feb 2003)
Does backgammon need less luck?  (Raccoon, Jan 2008)
How much of backgammon is luck?  (Wai Mun Yoon, Jan 1998)
How much skill versus luck?  (Alexandre Sierra, Nov 2000)
How much skill versus luck?  (JP White+, Aug 2000)
How often to win with perfect play?  (Robert-Jan Veldhuizen, Nov 2000)
Is backgammon gambling?  (Luc Palmans+, Oct 2010)
Is backgammon gambling?  (Kevin D. McLeaster, Sept 1997)
Is there really luck in backgammon?  (benf+, Jan 2012)
Recognizing luck  (Walter Trice, Dec 2004)
Strange result  (az-willie+, Mar 2003)
The Bower Luck-O-Meter  (Gary Wong, Aug 1998)
Why are stronger players luckier?  (Bob Sweeney+, Oct 2002)