Forum Archive :
Cube Handling in Races
Calculating winning chances
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> > Is there a handy set of reasonably accurate guidelines which can be
> > applied to match play?
>
> Walter Trice suggests interpolation which is pretty simple to use over
> the board.
I think the following table is useful, memorizably simple and rather
accurate:
Your cubeless winning chances when you are on roll
------- Your pipcount ------
50 60 70 80 90 100
-- Lead --
-4 pips 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50%
0 pips 62% 61% 60% 60% 59% 58%
7 pips 78%
8 pips 78%
9 pips 78%
10 pips 78%
11 pips 78%
12 pips 78%
These percentages are not *exactly* right. They've been rounded to 2
digits, of course, and sometimes rounded down instead of up to create
an easily memorizable and still quite accurate pattern. A deficit of 4
pips is very close to 50% GWC over an even broader range of pipcounts
than the table shows. The percentages for even races are off by no
more than 0.6%. And 78% is the best single two-digit approximation of
a 10% (rounded down, i.e., no rounding for these pipcounts) plus 2
pips lead.
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Cube Handling in Races
- Bower's modified Thorp count (Chuck Bower, July 1997)
- Calculating winning chances (Raccoon, Jan 2007)
- Calculating winning chances (OpenWheel+, Nov 2005)
- Doubling formulas (Michael J. Zehr, Jan 1995)
- Doubling in a long race (Brian Sheppard, Feb 1998)
- EPC example (adambulldog+, Jan 2011)
- EPC example: stack and straggler (neilkaz+, Jan 2009)
- EPC examples: stack and straggler (Carlo Melzi+, Dec 2008)
- Effective pipcount (Douglas Zare, Sept 2003)
- Effective pipcount and type of position (Douglas Zare, Jan 2004)
- Kleinman count (Øystein Johansen+, Feb 2001)
- Kleinman count (André Nicoulin, Sept 1998)
- Kleinman count (Chuck Bower, Mar 1998)
- Lamford's race forumla (Michael Schell, Aug 2001)
- N-roll vs n-roll bearoff (David Rubin+, July 2008)
- N-roll vs n-roll bearoff (Gregg Cattanach, Nov 2002)
- N-roll vs n-roll bearoff (Chuck Bower+, Dec 1997)
- Near end of game (Daniel Murphy, Mar 1997)
- Near end of game (David Montgomery, Feb 1997)
- Near end of game (Ron Karr, Feb 1997)
- One checker model (Kit Woolsey+, Feb 1998)
- Pip count percentage (Jeff Mogath+, Feb 2001)
- Pip-count formulas (Tom Keith+, June 2004)
- Thorp count (Chuck Bower, Jan 1997)
- Thorp count (Simon Woodhead, Sept 1991)
- Thorp count questions (Chuck Bower, Sept 1999)
- Value of a pip (Tom Keith, June 2004)
- Ward's racing formula (Marty Storer, Jan 1992)
- What's your favorite formula? (Timothy Chow+, Aug 2012)
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