Luck versus Skill

Forum Archive : Luck versus Skill

 
Why are stronger players luckier?

From:   Bob Sweeney
Address:   bobsweeney2@comcast.net
Date:   10 October 2002
Subject:   Is gnubg luck related to skill?
Forum:   rec.games.backgammon
Google:   cqgaqug9r7uliach297q8prrjctao1lqu9@4ax.com

Is gnubg luck related to skill?

I ask because the bot is consistantly luckier than I am based on its
own luck ratings.  I just played twenty five games with the bot and it
ended the game with a higher luck rating than me 16 times, I was
higher on 4 and we had the same on 5.   I know this is a tiny sample
but I seem to consistantly get out-lucked by the bot and only did the
25 game test because of what seemed like a higher than average luck
factor for gnubg over the last 4-5 months that I've been playing
gnubg.

Thanks,
Bob Sweeney

Douglas Zare  writes:

Suppose to start off each match, you make a blunder worth 20% mwc, but
then you and your opponent play perfectly. Then you will win 30% of the
time, and every time you win, your net luck will be +70%. Every time you
lose, your net luck will be -30%. If you win 3 games in 10, then your
total luck would be 210%-210%=0%.

The total luck should average to 0 in the long run. However, the stronger
player will be luckier most of the time. In a match between players who do
not play at a novice level, the luckier player wins, so it is not useful
to check who is luckier if you already know who won the match. What is
useful is to see how much luck was used.
 
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Luck versus Skill

Are good players just luckier?  (Douglas Zare, Sept 2000) 
Are luck and skill related?  (Eskimo+, Feb 2003) 
Does backgammon need less luck?  (Raccoon, Jan 2008)  [GammOnLine forum]
How much of backgammon is luck?  (Wai Mun Yoon, Jan 1998) 
How much skill versus luck?  (Alexandre Sierra, Nov 2000) 
How much skill versus luck?  (JP White+, Aug 2000) 
How often to win with perfect play?  (Robert-Jan Veldhuizen, Nov 2000) 
Is backgammon gambling?  (Luc Palmans+, Oct 2010) 
Is backgammon gambling?  (Kevin D. McLeaster, Sept 1997) 
Is there really luck in backgammon?  (benf+, Jan 2012) 
Recognizing luck  (Walter Trice, Dec 2004) 
Strange result  (az-willie+, Mar 2003) 
The Bower Luck-O-Meter  (Gary Wong, Aug 1998) 
Why are stronger players luckier?  (Bob Sweeney+, Oct 2002) 

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