Opening Reply 3-3

Best Nearly Best Pretty Good Not So Good Here are the best ways to play a roll of    after each of Red's possible opening rolls. The EQUITY column shows the estimated cubeless equity of each potential play. The best play is displayed with a white background and the other plays are displayed with progressively darker backgrounds to give a rough idea of the amount of equity lost. Plays that give up more than 0.05 in cubeless equity are not listed at all.

The VOTES column indicates the recommendations of some selected experts:       D = Joe Dwek, in Backgammon for Profit (1975).       R = Bill Robertie, in Inside Backgammon, Volume 8 (1998).       C = Rene Cerutti, posted to the Internet (1999).       B = Bart Brooks, in Backgammon's Best Openings and Replies (2004). The check marks denote the best play in each of the following situations: Cubeless (CL): Cubeless money play. Double Match Point (DMP): In a match with just one game to go. Gammon-Go (GG): When aggressively going for a gammon win. Gammon-Save (GS): When aggressively avoiding a gammon loss.

After played 24/23, 13/11		Reply    PLAY W      G     BG     EQUITY VOTES CL DMP GG GS   24/21(2), 13/10(2)   + .555, .140, .005   − .445, .086, .003 +.165   RBC (.018)   24/21(2), 6/3(2)   + .544, .142, .005   − .456, .090, .003 +.143   (.022) (.020) (.035) (.028)   8/5(2), 6/3(2)   + .525, .178, .008   − .475, .127, .006 +.104   (.062) (.059) (.141)
After played 13/11, 6/5		Reply    PLAY W      G     BG     EQUITY VOTES CL DMP GG GS   24/21(2), 8/5(2)   + .538, .156, .006   − .462, .096, .003 +.139   DB (.046)   24/21(2), 13/10(2)   + .533, .134, .005   − .467, .094, .003 +.107   R (.032) (.011) (.101) (.007)   8/5(2), 6/3(2)   + .532, .186, .011   − .468, .148, .008 +.104   (.035) (.013) (.118)   24/21(2), 6/3(2)   + .528, .137, .005   − .472, .095, .003 +.100   (.039) (.021) (.104) (.019)
After played 8/5, 6/5		Reply    PLAY W      G     BG     EQUITY VOTES CL DMP GG GS   24/21(2), 13/10(2)   + .519, .125, .004   − .481, .091, .003 +.074   RBC (.002) (.045)   24/21(2), 6/3(2)   + .512, .126, .004   − .488, .093, .003 +.058   (.015) (.017) (.056) (.019)   24/21(2), 8/5(2)   + .506, .136, .004   − .494, .098, .004 +.050   D (.023) (.030) (.051) (.041)   24/18(2)   + .520, .107, .003   − .479, .103, .003 +.045   (.028) (.078) (.022)   8/5(2), 6/3(2)   + .496, .171, .008   − .504, .155, .008 +.008   (.065) (.049) (.174)
After played 24/21, 13/11		Reply    PLAY W      G     BG     EQUITY VOTES CL DMP GG GS   24/21(2), 13/10(2)   + .550, .129, .005   − .450, .086, .003 +.144   RBC (.019)   24/21(2), 6/3(2)   + .530, .122, .004   − .470, .087, .003 +.096   (.048) (.039) (.072) (.041)   13/10(2), 6/3(2)   + .531, .157, .007   − .469, .125, .006 +.095   (.049) (.037) (.115)
After played 13/11, 13/10		Reply    PLAY W      G     BG     EQUITY VOTES CL DMP GG GS   24/21(2), 8/5(2)   + .559, .171, .007   − .441, .095, .003 +.199   DB (.001) (.053)   8/5(2), 6/3(2)   + .560, .197, .012   − .440, .140, .007 +.182   (.017) (.090)   24/21(2), 6/3(2)   + .556, .155, .007   − .444, .094, .003 +.176   (.023) (.008) (.092) (.007)   24/21(2), 13/10(2)   + .554, .151, .006   − .446, .095, .003 +.165   R (.034) (.013) (.104) (.014)
After played 24/23, 13/9		Reply    PLAY W      G     BG     EQUITY VOTES CL DMP GG GS   24/21(2), 13/10(2)   + .555, .144, .005   − .445, .089, .003 +.166   RBC   24/21(2), 6/3(2)   + .549, .145, .005   − .451, .092, .003 +.153   (.013) (.012) (.009) (.018)
After played 24/20, 6/5		Reply    PLAY W      G     BG     EQUITY VOTES CL DMP GG GS   8/5*(2), 6/3(2)   + .598, .255, .016   − .402, .104, .005 +.358   R
After played 13/9, 6/5		Reply    PLAY W      G     BG     EQUITY VOTES CL DMP GG GS   24/21(2), 8/5(2)   + .533, .158, .006   − .467, .098, .004 +.128   DB (.005) (.032) (.004)   24/21(2), 6/3(2)   + .535, .146, .006   − .465, .101, .004 +.117   (.011) (.051) (.005)   24/21(2), 13/10(2)   + .533, .137, .005   − .467, .097, .003 +.108   R (.020) (.004) (.073)   8/5(2), 6/3(2)   + .521, .185, .011   − .479, .152, .008 +.078   (.049) (.028) (.134)
After played 8/4, 6/4		Reply    PLAY W      G     BG     EQUITY VOTES CL DMP GG GS   8/5(2), 6/3(2)   + .516, .183, .009   − .484, .148, .008 +.068   RDBC   13/10(2), 6/3(2)   + .505, .168, .009   − .495, .154, .008 +.025   (.044) (.023) (.053) (.035)
After played 24/21, 24/20		Reply    PLAY W      G     BG     EQUITY VOTES CL DMP GG GS   8/5*(2), 6/3(2)   + .581, .205, .008   − .419, .098, .004 +.274   R
After played 24/21, 13/9		Reply    PLAY W      G     BG     EQUITY VOTES CL DMP GG GS   24/21(2), 13/10(2)   + .552, .128, .004   − .448, .087, .003 +.147   RBC
After played 24/20, 13/10		Reply    PLAY W      G     BG     EQUITY VOTES CL DMP GG GS   8/5*(2), 6/3(2)   + .610, .232, .012   − .390, .101, .005 +.359   RB
After played 13/10, 13/9		Reply    PLAY W      G     BG     EQUITY VOTES CL DMP GG GS   24/21(2), 8/5(2)   + .556, .169, .007   − .444, .095, .004 +.190   DB (.015) (.026)   24/21(2), 6/3(2)   + .553, .154, .006   − .447, .093, .003 +.170   (.020) (.021) (.064) (.002)   24/15*, 13/10   + .561, .166, .011   − .439, .127, .005 +.166   R (.025) (.006) (.025) (.055)   24/21(2), 13/10(2)   + .553, .150, .006   − .447, .096, .003 +.164   (.026) (.021) (.071) (.007)   24/15*, 24/21   + .564, .157, .011   − .436, .126, .005 +.164   (.027) (.036) (.048)   8/5(2), 6/3(2)   + .546, .193, .012   − .454, .145, .007 +.145   (.046) (.034) (.119)
After played 24/23, 13/8		Reply    PLAY W      G     BG     EQUITY VOTES CL DMP GG GS   24/21(2), 13/10(2)   + .558, .138, .004   − .442, .080, .003 +.176   RBC (.038)   24/21(2), 6/3(2)   + .548, .142, .005   − .452, .086, .003 +.154   (.022) (.021) (.052) (.032)   13/10(2), 6/3(2)   + .546, .169, .007   − .454, .125, .006 +.138   (.039) (.024) (.114)
After played 24/18		Reply    PLAY W      G     BG     EQUITY VOTES CL DMP GG GS   13/7*(2)   + .565, .166, .007   − .435, .108, .004 +.191   R (.013) (.020)   13/7*, 8/5(2)   + .546, .191, .008   − .454, .119, .006 +.166   (.025) (.038) (.081)   13/7*, 6/3(2)   + .547, .179, .008   − .453, .117, .005 +.159   (.033) (.036) (.022) (.075)   24/21(2), 13/10(2)   + .537, .119, .004   − .463, .070, .002 +.124   (.067) (.055) (.163)
After played 13/8, 6/5		Reply    PLAY W      G     BG     EQUITY VOTES CL DMP GG GS   24/21(2), 8/5(2)   + .540, .158, .005   − .460, .092, .003 +.149   DB (.000) (.067)   8/5(2), 6/3(2)   + .540, .191, .010   − .460, .142, .007 +.133   (.016) (.099)   24/21(2), 13/10(2)   + .535, .135, .004   − .465, .089, .003 +.118   R (.031) (.011) (.123) (.005)   24/21(2), 6/3(2)   + .532, .140, .005   − .468, .092, .003 +.114   (.035) (.017) (.119) (.016)
After played 24/22, 13/8		Reply    PLAY W      G     BG     EQUITY VOTES CL DMP GG GS   8/5(2), 6/3*(2)   + .604, .232, .009   − .396, .102, .005 +.342   RB
After played 13/8, 6/4		Reply    PLAY W      G     BG     EQUITY VOTES CL DMP GG GS   24/21*(2), 8/5(2)   + .608, .195, .011   − .392, .085, .003 +.335   (.002)   24/21*, 13/10, 6/3(2)   + .596, .203, .014   − .404, .095, .004 +.310   (.025) (.024) (.011) (.044)   24/21*, 13/10, 8/5(2)   + .592, .212, .014   − .408, .101, .005 +.304   (.030) (.031) (.064)   24/21*, 8/5(3)   + .594, .205, .014   − .406, .099, .004 +.303   (.032) (.028) (.011) (.057)   24/21*(2), 6/3(2)   + .601, .179, .010   − .399, .086, .003 +.301   (.033) (.014) (.050) (.016)   24/21*(2), 13/10(2)   + .600, .176, .008   − .400, .083, .003 +.298   R (.036) (.016) (.056) (.013)
After played 13/11, 13/8		Reply    PLAY W      G     BG     EQUITY VOTES CL DMP GG GS   8/5(2), 6/3(2)   + .560, .201, .010   − .440, .128, .007 +.196   BC (.074)   24/21(2), 8/5(2)   + .555, .166, .006   − .445, .090, .003 +.187   D (.009) (.011) (.081) (.010)   24/21(2), 13/10(2)   + .556, .147, .005   − .444, .086, .003 +.174   R (.022) (.009) (.116)   24/21(2), 6/3(2)   + .553, .148, .005   − .447, .088, .003 +.168   (.028) (.014) (.118) (.009)
After played 8/3, 6/3		Reply    PLAY W      G     BG     EQUITY VOTES CL DMP GG GS   24/21(2), 13/10(2)   + .551, .148, .005   − .449, .091, .003 +.161   RBC (.066)   24/21(2), 8/5(2)   + .539, .160, .006   − .461, .097, .003 +.144   (.017) (.023) (.066) (.034)   24/21(2), 6/3(2)   + .542, .146, .005   − .458, .097, .003 +.136   (.025) (.018) (.087) (.028)   8/5(2), 6/3(2)   + .537, .195, .009   − .463, .141, .008 +.130   (.031) (.027) (.125)
After played 13/10, 13/8		Reply    PLAY W      G     BG     EQUITY VOTES CL DMP GG GS   24/21(2), 8/5(2)   + .558, .169, .006   − .442, .092, .003 +.194   D (.013) (.058) (.013)   24/21(2), 6/3(2)   + .560, .154, .005   − .440, .088, .003 +.188   (.007) (.008) (.084)   8/5(2), 6/3(2)   + .561, .194, .010   − .439, .133, .007 +.187   (.007) (.005) (.087)   24/15*, 13/10   + .564, .158, .009   − .436, .121, .005 +.169   R (.026) (.068) (.057)   24/21(2), 13/10(2)   + .553, .150, .005   − .447, .090, .003 +.168   (.026) (.022) (.106) (.017)
After played 24/20, 13/8		Reply    PLAY W      G     BG     EQUITY VOTES CL DMP GG GS   8/5*(2), 6/3(2)   + .604, .232, .009   − .396, .102, .005 +.342   RBC
After played 13/9, 13/8		Reply    PLAY W      G     BG     EQUITY VOTES CL DMP GG GS   24/21(2), 6/3(2)   + .557, .154, .006   − .443, .094, .003 +.178   B (.002) (.077) (.006)   24/21(2), 13/10(2)   + .558, .148, .005   − .442, .091, .003 +.175   R (.003) (.089)   24/21(2), 8/5(2)   + .550, .166, .005   − .450, .093, .003 +.175   D (.003) (.016) (.069) (.020)   8/5(2), 6/3(2)   + .555, .195, .010   − .445, .137, .007 +.171   (.007) (.006) (.098)
After played 13/7, 8/7		Reply    PLAY W      G     BG     EQUITY VOTES CL DMP GG GS   24/21(2), 13/10(2)   + .537, .136, .004   − .463, .088, .003 +.124   RC (.060)   24/21(2), 6/3(2)   + .531, .136, .004   − .469, .088, .003 +.111   (.012) (.012) (.073) (.012)   24/21(2), 8/5(2)   + .525, .147, .004   − .475, .089, .003 +.110   DB (.014) (.024) (.062) (.026)   8/5(2), 6/3(2)   + .524, .179, .008   − .476, .138, .007 +.091   (.033) (.027) (.127)
After played 24/18, 13/11		Reply    PLAY W      G     BG     EQUITY VOTES CL DMP GG GS   13/7*(2)   + .549, .164, .008   − .451, .116, .004 +.149   RBC (.020) (.026)   13/7*, 8/5(2)   + .534, .189, .009   − .466, .128, .007 +.132   (.017) (.030) (.078)   13/7*, 6/3(2)   + .535, .178, .009   − .465, .124, .006 +.126   (.023) (.028) (.021) (.070)   24/21(2), 6/3(2)   + .522, .118, .004   − .478, .077, .002 +.087   (.062) (.054) (.167)
After played 24/16		Reply    PLAY W      G     BG     EQUITY VOTES CL DMP GG GS   8/5(2), 6/3(2)   + .530, .185, .006   − .470, .107, .005 +.140   R (.017) (.088)   24/21(2), 13/10(2)   + .539, .130, .004   − .461, .071, .002 +.138   B (.002) (.093)   24/21(2), 6/3(2)   + .533, .129, .004   − .467, .069, .002 +.127   (.013) (.011) (.107) (.007)   24/21(2), 8/5(2)   + .526, .143, .004   − .474, .071, .003 +.125   (.015) (.025) (.092) (.026)   13/10(2), 6/3(2)   + .522, .163, .006   − .478, .116, .005 +.091   (.049) (.033) (.060) (.125)
After played 13/5		Reply    PLAY W      G     BG     EQUITY VOTES CL DMP GG GS   8/5(2), 6/3(2)   + .550, .195, .011   − .450, .143, .007 +.155   (.080)   24/21(2), 8/5(2)   + .541, .158, .005   − .459, .094, .003 +.148   (.007) (.017) (.091)   24/21(2), 6/3(2)   + .536, .141, .005   − .464, .093, .003 +.122   (.033) (.029) (.135) (.008)   24/21(2), 13/10(2)   + .535, .136, .005   − .465, .090, .003 +.118   R (.037) (.029) (.146) (.004)
After played 24/18, 13/10		Reply    PLAY W      G     BG     EQUITY VOTES CL DMP GG GS   13/7*(2)   + .551, .163, .007   − .449, .116, .004 +.152   RBC (.031) (.012)   13/7*, 8/5(2)   + .536, .193, .010   − .464, .129, .007 +.140   (.013) (.030) (.068)   13/7*, 6/3(2)   + .534, .175, .008   − .466, .125, .006 +.120   (.032) (.034) (.041) (.064)   24/21(2), 6/3(2)   + .518, .118, .004   − .482, .077, .002 +.078   (.074) (.067) (.188)
After played 24/15		Reply    PLAY W      G     BG     EQUITY VOTES CL DMP GG GS   13/10*(2), 6/3(2)   + .594, .200, .010   − .406, .103, .004 +.291   RB (.021)   13/10*(2), 8/5(2)   + .583, .209, .009   − .417, .108, .005 +.271   (.020) (.024) (.006) (.053)   24/21(2), 13/10*(2)   + .584, .162, .006   − .416, .083, .003 +.252   (.040) (.020) (.097)   13/10*, 8/5(3)   + .572, .206, .009   − .428, .111, .005 +.243   (.049) (.045) (.034) (.082)
After played 8/2, 6/2		Reply    PLAY W      G     BG     EQUITY VOTES CL DMP GG GS   24/21(2), 13/10(2)   + .564, .152, .006   − .436, .091, .003 +.192   RB (.094)   8/5(2), 6/3(2)   + .558, .205, .009   − .442, .136, .008 +.187   (.005) (.011) (.101)   24/21(2), 6/3(2)   + .555, .154, .006   − .445, .096, .003 +.171   (.021) (.017) (.107) (.028)   24/21(2), 8/5(2)   + .550, .167, .006   − .450, .099, .003 +.171   (.022) (.029) (.092) (.044)   13/10(2), 6/3(2)   + .554, .187, .009   − .446, .138, .007 +.159   (.033) (.020) (.045) (.115)
After played 24/18, 13/9		Reply    PLAY W      G     BG     EQUITY VOTES CL DMP GG GS   13/7*(2)   + .550, .163, .007   − .450, .119, .004 +.146   RB (.016) (.022)   13/7*, 6/3(2)   + .537, .177, .008   − .463, .127, .006 +.126   (.020) (.026) (.014) (.064)   13/7*, 8/5(2)   + .532, .189, .009   − .468, .133, .007 +.122   (.024) (.036) (.084)   24/21(2), 13/7*   + .536, .141, .005   − .464, .099, .003 +.115   (.031) (.028) (.089) (.009)   24/21(2), 13/10(2)   + .519, .111, .003   − .481, .078, .003 +.072   D (.074) (.061) (.181)
After played 24/14		Reply    PLAY W      G     BG     EQUITY VOTES CL DMP GG GS   24/21(2), 13/10(2)   + .529, .125, .003   − .471, .073, .003 +.112   B (.090)   8/5(2), 6/3(2)   + .520, .179, .006   − .480, .108, .005 +.112   RC (.000) (.018) (.089)   24/21(2), 6/3(2)   + .527, .125, .003   − .473, .071, .002 +.110   (.002) (.004) (.095) (.000)   24/21(2), 8/5(2)   + .518, .138, .004   − .482, .070, .002 +.106   (.007) (.022) (.086) (.017)
After played 24/13		Reply    PLAY W      G     BG     EQUITY VOTES CL DMP GG GS   24/21(2), 13/10(2)   + .529, .123, .003   − .471, .070, .002 +.112   BC (.070) (.006)   24/21(2), 6/3(2)   + .522, .116, .003   − .478, .060, .002 +.102   (.010) (.013) (.096)   8/5(2), 6/3(2)   + .514, .173, .005   − .486, .104, .005 +.096   R (.016) (.030) (.105)   24/21(2), 8/5(2)   + .507, .127, .003   − .493, .062, .002 +.079   D (.033) (.043) (.105) (.034)   13/10(2), 6/3(2)   + .515, .157, .005   − .485, .116, .005 +.072   (.039) (.027) (.027) (.125)

Summary

Opening Play   Reply 24/21(2), 13/10(2) 8/5(2), 6/3(2) 24/21(2), 8/5(2) 13/7(2) 24/21(2), 6/3(2) 13/10(2), 6/3(2)   24/23, 13/11             13/11, 6/5             8/5, 6/5             24/21, 13/11             13/11, 13/10             24/23, 13/9             24/20, 6/5   *5           13/9, 6/5             8/4, 6/4             24/21, 24/20   *5           24/21, 13/9             24/20, 13/10   *5           13/10, 13/9             24/23, 13/8             24/18       *7       13/8, 6/5             24/22, 13/8   *3           13/8, 6/4     *21         13/11, 13/8             8/3, 6/3             13/10, 13/8             24/20, 13/8   *5           13/9, 13/8             13/7, 8/7             24/18, 13/11       *7       24/16           13/5             24/18, 13/10       *7       24/15           *10   8/2, 6/2             24/18, 13/9       *7       24/14         24/13             24/21(2), 13/10(2) 8/5(2), 6/3(2) 24/21(2), 8/5(2) 13/7(2) 24/21(2), 6/3(2) 13/10(2), 6/3(2)

 

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