Replies to 24/18, 13/9

Best
Nearly Best
Pretty Good
Not So Good
Here are White's best replies after Red opens 24/18, 13/9.

The EQUITY column shows the estimated cubeless equity of each potential play. The best play is displayed with a white background and the other plays are displayed with progressively darker backgrounds to give a rough idea of the amount of equity lost. Plays that give up more than 0.05 in cubeless equity are not listed at all.

The VOTES column indicates the recommendations of some selected experts:

      D = Joe Dwek, in Backgammon for Profit (1975).
      R = Bill Robertie, in Inside Backgammon, Volume 8 (1998).
      B = Bart Brooks, in Backgammon's Best Openings and Replies (2004).

The check marks denote the best play for each of the following situations:

  • Cubeless (CL): Cubeless money play.
  • Double Match Point (DMP): In a match which has come down to one final game.
  • Gammon-Go (GG): When aggressively going for a gammon win.
  • Gammon-Save (GS): When aggressively avoiding a gammon loss.

   PLAY W      G     BG     EQUITY VOTES CL DMP GG GS
  8/7*(2), 6/5(2)   + .578, .178, .008
  − .422, .114, .005
 +.222   RDB
  24/23, 8/7*, 6/5(2)   + .570, .176, .009
  − .430, .119, .005
 +.201   (.022) (.015) (.019) (.024)
  8/7*/5, 6/5   + .564, .179, .008
  − .436, .119, .005
 +.191   (.031) (.027) (.026) (.037)
   PLAY W      G     BG     EQUITY VOTES CL DMP GG GS
  24/22, 8/7*   + .468, .124, .005
  − .532, .152, .007
 −.093   (.000) (.014)
  13/11, 8/7*   + .468, .131, .005
  − .532, .165, .010
 −.102   RDB (.009) (.027)
  8/7*/5   + .456, .125, .005
  − .544, .169, .011
 −.139   (.045) (.025) (.037) (.060)
   PLAY W      G     BG     EQUITY VOTES CL DMP GG GS
  24/16*   + .528, .131, .006
  − .472, .121, .004
 +.068   B (.043)
  24/22(2), 6/4(2)   + .508, .127, .004
  − .492, .095, .003
 +.050   RD (.018) (.040) (.047) (.030)
  13/11(2), 6/4(2)   + .507, .140, .006
  − .493, .129, .006
 +.026   (.042) (.042) (.023) (.100)
  24/20(2)   + .494, .090, .002
  − .506, .066, .002
 +.014   (.054) (.068) (.148)
   PLAY W      G     BG     EQUITY VOTES CL DMP GG GS
  8/5, 6/5   + .470, .126, .005
  − .530, .136, .006
 −.071   RDB (.009) (.012)
  24/21, 8/7*   + .475, .127, .005
  − .525, .151, .007
 −.076   (.005) (.021)
  13/10, 8/7*   + .466, .132, .006
  − .534, .169, .011
 −.110   (.039) (.018) (.008) (.075)
   PLAY W      G     BG     EQUITY VOTES CL DMP GG GS
  24/21, 13/11   + .434, .104, .004
  − .566, .154, .007
 −.185   RB (.008)
  6/1*   + .426, .116, .004
  − .574, .161, .009
 −.198   (.013) (.016) (.031)
  24/22, 13/10   + .427, .104, .004
  − .573, .159, .007
 −.205   (.020) (.016) (.024) (.025)
  24/22, 24/21   + .427, .098, .004
  − .573, .158, .006
 −.207   D (.022) (.014) (.033) (.021)
  13/11, 8/5   + .426, .112, .004
  − .574, .170, .011
 −.212   (.028) (.016) (.008) (.047)
  13/8   + .420, .104, .004
  − .580, .159, .007
 −.218   (.033) (.028) (.036) (.038)
  13/10, 6/4   + .425, .108, .004
  − .575, .172, .011
 −.221   (.036) (.019) (.018) (.054)
  24/21, 6/4   + .425, .098, .003
  − .575, .164, .008
 −.221   (.036) (.018) (.039) (.039)
  24/22, 8/5   + .426, .106, .004
  − .574, .175, .009
 −.222   (.038) (.017) (.021) (.059)
   PLAY W      G     BG     EQUITY VOTES CL DMP GG GS
  13/7*(2)   + .550, .163, .007
  − .450, .119, .004
 +.146   RB (.016) (.022)
  13/7*, 6/3(2)   + .537, .177, .008
  − .463, .127, .006
 +.126   (.020) (.026) (.014) (.064)
  13/7*, 8/5(2)   + .532, .189, .009
  − .468, .133, .007
 +.122   (.024) (.036) (.084)
  24/21(2), 13/7*   + .536, .141, .005
  − .464, .099, .003
 +.115   (.031) (.028) (.089) (.009)
  24/21(2), 13/10(2)   + .519, .111, .003
  − .481, .078, .003
 +.072   D (.074) (.061) (.181)
   PLAY W      G     BG     EQUITY VOTES CL DMP GG GS
  24/20, 8/7*   + .475, .131, .006
  − .525, .152, .007
 −.072   RB (.012)
  13/9, 8/7*   + .472, .140, .006
  − .528, .166, .011
 −.086   D (.014) (.006) (.034)
   PLAY W      G     BG     EQUITY VOTES CL DMP GG GS
  13/7*   + .477, .134, .006
  − .523, .152, .008
 −.066   RB
  8/4, 6/4   + .464, .128, .005
  − .536, .143, .007
 −.089   D (.024) (.027) (.039) (.008)
   PLAY W      G     BG     EQUITY VOTES CL DMP GG GS
  24/21, 13/9   + .435, .107, .004
  − .565, .157, .008
 −.184   RB
  24/20, 8/5   + .432, .110, .005
  − .568, .165, .008
 −.195   (.011) (.006) (.001) (.022)
  24/20, 13/10   + .432, .103, .004
  − .568, .157, .008
 −.195   (.011) (.007) (.016) (.006)
  24/21, 24/20   + .428, .096, .004
  − .572, .151, .006
 −.200   (.016) (.013) (.035) (.001)
  8/1*   + .418, .117, .004
  − .582, .165, .009
 −.218   D (.035) (.035) (.016) (.051)
   PLAY W      G     BG     EQUITY VOTES CL DMP GG GS
  24/16*, 13/9(2)   + .589, .159, .008
  − .411, .095, .003
 +.248   R (.019) (.038)
  24/16*(2)   + .598, .124, .005
  − .402, .085, .002
 +.238   B (.010) (.053)
  24/16*, 6/2(2)   + .569, .166, .009
  − .431, .107, .004
 +.201   (.046) (.059) (.026) (.104)
   PLAY W      G     BG     EQUITY VOTES CL DMP GG GS
  13/7*   + .477, .134, .006
  − .523, .152, .008
 −.066   RB (.001)
  8/7*, 6/1*   + .469, .143, .005
  − .531, .162, .009
 −.085   D (.019) (.016) (.036)
   PLAY W      G     BG     EQUITY VOTES CL DMP GG GS
  24/22, 6/1*   + .449, .121, .004
  − .551, .154, .007
 −.139   RB
  24/22, 13/8   + .438, .107, .004
  − .562, .153, .006
 −.171   (.032) (.022) (.049) (.018)
   PLAY W      G     BG     EQUITY VOTES CL DMP GG GS
  24/16*   + .528, .131, .006
  − .472, .121, .004
 +.068   RDB
   PLAY W      G     BG     EQUITY VOTES CL DMP GG GS
  24/20, 6/1*   + .458, .126, .004
  − .542, .148, .007
 −.108   RDB
  24/20, 13/8   + .448, .106, .004
  − .552, .139, .006
 −.140   (.032) (.021) (.062) (.005)
   PLAY W      G     BG     EQUITY VOTES CL DMP GG GS
  8/3(2), 6/1*(2)   + .536, .243, .008
  − .464, .118, .005
 +.200   RDB (.006)
  13/8(2), 6/1*(2)   + .535, .206, .006
  − .465, .114, .004
 +.164   (.036) (.001) (.075)
   PLAY W      G     BG     EQUITY VOTES CL DMP GG GS
  13/7*, 8/7   + .528, .149, .007
  − .472, .128, .005
 +.079   RDB
   PLAY W      G     BG     EQUITY VOTES CL DMP GG GS
  24/16*   + .528, .131, .006
  − .472, .121, .004
 +.068   RB
   PLAY W      G     BG     EQUITY VOTES CL DMP GG GS
  24/21, 13/7*   + .500, .141, .006
  − .500, .138, .006
 +.002   RDB
   PLAY W      G     BG     EQUITY VOTES CL DMP GG GS
  24/20, 13/7*   + .500, .142, .007
  − .500, .135, .006
 +.007   RDB
  13/9, 13/7*   + .486, .150, .007
  − .514, .156, .009
 −.036   (.043) (.026) (.009) (.069)
   PLAY W      G     BG     EQUITY VOTES CL DMP GG GS
  13/7*, 6/1*   + .500, .162, .006
  − .500, .145, .007
 +.015   RDB
  13/8, 13/7*   + .488, .142, .006
  − .512, .147, .007
 −.030   (.045) (.024) (.062) (.028)
   PLAY W      G     BG     EQUITY VOTES CL DMP GG GS
  24/18(2), 13/7*(2)   + .641, .158, .006
  − .359, .071, .002
 +.373   RDB (.076)
  13/7*/1*(2)   + .583, .255, .009
  − .417, .108, .004
 +.317   (.056) (.117) (.190)

Summary

Rolls in order from luckiest to unluckiest, and calculation of average equity.

(+.379) 24/18(2), 13/7*(2) +.373 × 1  =   +.373
(+.254) 24/16*, 13/9(2) +.248 × 1  =   +.248
(+.229) 8/7*(2), 6/5(2) +.222 × 1  =   +.222
(+.207) 8/3(2), 6/1*(2) +.200 × 1  =   +.200
(+.152) 13/7*(2) +.146 × 1  =   +.146
(+.085) 13/7*, 8/7 +.079 × 2  =   +.158
(+.074) 24/16* +.068 × 2  =   +.136
(+.074) 24/16* +.068 × 2  =   +.136
(+.074) 24/16* +.068 × 1  =   +.068
(+.021) 13/7*, 6/1* +.015 × 2  =   +.030
(+.014) 24/20, 13/7* +.007 × 2  =   +.014
(+.008) 24/21, 13/7* +.002 × 2  =   +.004
(−.059) 13/7* −.066 × 2  =   −.131
(−.059) 13/7* −.066 × 2  =   −.131
(−.065) 8/5, 6/5 −.071 × 2  =   −.143
(−.066) 24/20, 8/7* −.072 × 2  =   −.144
(−.087) 24/22, 8/7* −.093 × 2  =   −.186
(−.101) 24/20, 6/1* −.108 × 2  =   −.216
(−.132) 24/22, 6/1* −.139 × 2  =   −.277
(−.177) 24/21, 13/9 −.184 × 2  =   −.367
(−.178) 24/21, 13/11 −.185 × 2  =   −.369
  ———
  White's Average Equity −.233  ÷  36  =  −.006

 

Return to : Backgammon Galore : Openings : Replies