Replies to 24/14

Best
Nearly Best
Pretty Good
Not So Good
Here are White's best replies after Red opens 24/14.

The EQUITY column shows the estimated cubeless equity of each potential play. The best play is displayed with a white background and the other plays are displayed with progressively darker backgrounds to give a rough idea of the amount of equity lost. Plays that give up more than 0.05 in cubeless equity are not listed at all.

The VOTES column indicates the recommendations of some selected experts:

      R = Bill Robertie, in Inside Backgammon, Volume 8 (1998).
      C = Rene Cerutti, posted to the Internet (1999).
      B = Bart Brooks, in Backgammon's Best Openings and Replies (2004).

The check marks denote the best play for each of the following situations:

  • Cubeless (CL): Cubeless money play.
  • Double Match Point (DMP): In a match which has come down to one final game.
  • Gammon-Go (GG): When aggressively going for a gammon win.
  • Gammon-Save (GS): When aggressively avoiding a gammon loss.

   PLAY W      G     BG     EQUITY VOTES CL DMP GG GS
  8/7(2), 6/5(2)   + .515, .152, .005
  − .485, .123, .006
 +.057   RBC
  24/22, 6/5(2)   + .505, .138, .004
  − .495, .115, .004
 +.033   (.025) (.020) (.048) (.004)
  24/23, 6/5(3)   + .498, .137, .004
  − .502, .115, .005
 +.017   (.040) (.034) (.063) (.019)
   PLAY W      G     BG     EQUITY VOTES CL DMP GG GS
  24/23, 13/11*   + .514, .139, .005
  − .486, .123, .005
 +.043   RBC
  13/11*/10   + .508, .142, .006
  − .492, .131, .006
 +.027   (.016) (.011) (.005) (.027)
   PLAY W      G     BG     EQUITY VOTES CL DMP GG GS
  13/11*(2), 6/4(2)   + .607, .196, .009
  − .393, .100, .004
 +.314   RBC
  24/22, 13/11*, 6/4(2)   + .595, .187, .008
  − .405, .098, .004
 +.284   (.030) (.022) (.039) (.018)
   PLAY W      G     BG     EQUITY VOTES CL DMP GG GS
  8/5, 6/5   + .488, .140, .004
  − .512, .122, .006
 −.006   RBC
   PLAY W      G     BG     EQUITY VOTES CL DMP GG GS
  24/21, 13/11*   + .520, .140, .006
  − .480, .118, .005
 +.064   RBC (.018)
  13/11*, 13/10   + .517, .152, .007
  − .483, .132, .007
 +.054   (.009) (.007) (.035)
  13/11*/8   + .507, .137, .006
  − .493, .132, .005
 +.021   (.042) (.026) (.049) (.053)
   PLAY W      G     BG     EQUITY VOTES CL DMP GG GS
  24/21(2), 13/10(2)   + .529, .125, .003
  − .471, .073, .003
 +.112   B (.090)
  8/5(2), 6/3(2)   + .520, .179, .006
  − .480, .108, .005
 +.112   RC (.000) (.018) (.089)
  24/21(2), 6/3(2)   + .527, .125, .003
  − .473, .071, .002
 +.110   (.002) (.004) (.095) (.000)
  24/21(2), 8/5(2)   + .518, .138, .004
  − .482, .070, .002
 +.106   (.007) (.022) (.086) (.017)
   PLAY W      G     BG     EQUITY VOTES CL DMP GG GS
  13/9, 6/5   + .451, .123, .004
  − .549, .154, .010
 −.137   R (.039)
  24/23, 13/9   + .441, .115, .004
  − .559, .133, .006
 −.137   C (.000) (.019) (.033) (.015)
  24/20, 6/5   + .449, .112, .004
  − .551, .149, .008
 −.142   B (.005) (.003) (.024) (.031)
  24/23, 24/20   + .439, .099, .003
  − .561, .124, .005
 −.147   (.010) (.022) (.069)
  13/8   + .431, .107, .003
  − .569, .143, .007
 −.176   (.039) (.038) (.070) (.054)
   PLAY W      G     BG     EQUITY VOTES CL DMP GG GS
  24/20, 13/11*   + .521, .138, .006
  − .479, .114, .004
 +.067   RB (.033)
  13/11*, 13/9   + .517, .158, .007
  − .483, .133, .007
 +.059   (.008) (.009) (.047)
   PLAY W      G     BG     EQUITY VOTES CL DMP GG GS
  24/20, 13/10   + .454, .114, .004
  − .546, .126, .006
 −.107   BC (.006)
  24/21, 13/9   + .450, .115, .004
  − .550, .128, .006
 −.114   R (.008) (.007) (.010) (.010)
  13/10, 13/9   + .443, .127, .004
  − .557, .136, .007
 −.125   (.019) (.021) (.040)
  24/21, 24/20   + .446, .096, .003
  − .554, .121, .005
 −.134   (.028) (.015) (.057) (.005)
   PLAY W      G     BG     EQUITY VOTES CL DMP GG GS
  24/20(2), 13/9(2)   + .568, .137, .003
  − .432, .052, .002
 +.224   RBC
   PLAY W      G     BG     EQUITY VOTES CL DMP GG GS
  24/23, 13/8   + .445, .113, .003
  − .555, .131, .005
 −.130   (.003) (.013)
  13/8, 6/5   + .445, .119, .004
  − .555, .145, .008
 −.139   RBC (.010) (.002) (.026)
  24/18   + .447, .100, .004
  − .553, .138, .005
 −.146   (.016) (.036) (.010)
  13/7   + .430, .115, .004
  − .570, .143, .008
 −.173   (.043) (.033) (.040) (.055)
   PLAY W      G     BG     EQUITY VOTES CL DMP GG GS
  13/11*, 13/8   + .517, .148, .006
  − .483, .129, .005
 +.054   RB
  13/11*, 6/1*   + .499, .149, .005
  − .501, .139, .006
 +.007   (.047) (.037) (.035) (.056)
   PLAY W      G     BG     EQUITY VOTES CL DMP GG GS
  8/3, 6/3   + .463, .133, .004
  − .537, .133, .006
 −.076   RBC (.002)
  24/21, 13/8   + .455, .110, .004
  − .545, .123, .005
 −.105   (.029) (.016) (.063)
   PLAY W      G     BG     EQUITY VOTES CL DMP GG GS
  24/20, 13/8   + .457, .112, .004
  − .543, .124, .005
 −.100   RBC
  24/20, 6/1*   + .449, .111, .003
  − .551, .132, .006
 −.126   (.027) (.016) (.017) (.032)
  13/9, 13/8   + .444, .121, .004
  − .556, .136, .007
 −.130   (.031) (.026) (.008) (.050)
   PLAY W      G     BG     EQUITY VOTES CL DMP GG GS
  8/3(2), 6/1*(2)   + .534, .221, .004
  − .466, .101, .005
 +.189   RBC
   PLAY W      G     BG     EQUITY VOTES CL DMP GG GS
  13/7, 8/7   + .470, .125, .004
  − .530, .128, .006
 −.065   RBC
   PLAY W      G     BG     EQUITY VOTES CL DMP GG GS
  24/18, 13/11*   + .521, .128, .005
  − .479, .124, .005
 +.046   RBC
  13/11*, 13/7   + .501, .148, .006
  − .499, .140, .007
 +.009   (.037) (.039) (.000) (.071)
   PLAY W      G     BG     EQUITY VOTES CL DMP GG GS
  24/18, 13/10   + .462, .113, .004
  − .538, .136, .006
 −.101   RBC
  24/21, 13/7   + .445, .117, .004
  − .555, .135, .006
 −.129   (.028) (.032) (.023) (.032)
   PLAY W      G     BG     EQUITY VOTES CL DMP GG GS
  24/18, 13/9   + .455, .112, .004
  − .545, .135, .006
 −.114   RB (.018)
  8/2, 6/2   + .445, .132, .004
  − .555, .136, .006
 −.117   C (.003) (.020) (.022)
  24/20, 13/7   + .444, .117, .004
  − .556, .135, .006
 −.133   (.019) (.023) (.032) (.023)
   PLAY W      G     BG     EQUITY VOTES CL DMP GG GS
  24/13   + .468, .096, .003
  − .532, .120, .004
 −.089   RBC (.016)
  24/18, 13/8   + .463, .109, .004
  − .537, .131, .005
 −.097   (.008) (.010) (.032)
  24/18, 6/1*   + .451, .105, .003
  − .549, .140, .006
 −.136   (.047) (.033) (.032) (.074)
   PLAY W      G     BG     EQUITY VOTES CL DMP GG GS
  24/18(2), 13/7(2)   + .616, .139, .003
  − .384, .056, .002
 +.317   RBC

Summary

Rolls in order from luckiest to unluckiest, and calculation of average equity.

(+.319) 24/18(2), 13/7(2) +.317 × 1  =   +.317
(+.317) 13/11*(2), 6/4(2) +.314 × 1  =   +.314
(+.226) 24/20(2), 13/9(2) +.224 × 1  =   +.224
(+.191) 8/3(2), 6/1*(2) +.189 × 1  =   +.189
(+.115) 24/21(2), 13/10(2) +.112 × 1  =   +.112
(+.069) 24/20, 13/11* +.067 × 2  =   +.134
(+.066) 24/21, 13/11* +.064 × 2  =   +.127
(+.060) 8/7(2), 6/5(2) +.057 × 1  =   +.057
(+.056) 13/11*, 13/8 +.054 × 2  =   +.108
(+.049) 24/18, 13/11* +.046 × 2  =   +.092
(+.046) 24/23, 13/11* +.043 × 2  =   +.087
(−.004) 8/5, 6/5 −.006 × 2  =   −.013
(−.063) 13/7, 8/7 −.065 × 2  =   −.130
(−.074) 8/3, 6/3 −.076 × 2  =   −.152
(−.087) 24/13 −.089 × 2  =   −.178
(−.097) 24/20, 13/8 −.100 × 2  =   −.199
(−.098) 24/18, 13/10 −.101 × 2  =   −.202
(−.104) 24/20, 13/10 −.107 × 2  =   −.213
(−.112) 24/18, 13/9 −.114 × 2  =   −.229
(−.127) 24/23, 13/8 −.130 × 2  =   −.259
(−.134) 13/9, 6/5 −.137 × 2  =   −.274
  ———
  White's Average Equity −.088  ÷  36  =  −.002

 

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