Replies to 13/7, 8/7

Best
Nearly Best
Pretty Good
Not So Good
Here are White's best replies after Red opens 13/7, 8/7.

The EQUITY column shows the estimated cubeless equity of each potential play. The best play is displayed with a white background and the other plays are displayed with progressively darker backgrounds to give a rough idea of the amount of equity lost. Plays that give up more than 0.05 in cubeless equity are not listed at all.

The VOTES column indicates the recommendations of some selected experts:

      D = Joe Dwek, in Backgammon for Profit (1975).
      R = Bill Robertie, in Inside Backgammon, Volume 8 (1998).
      C = Rene Cerutti, posted to the Internet (1999).
      B = Bart Brooks, in Backgammon's Best Openings and Replies (2004).

The check marks denote the best play for each of the following situations:

  • Cubeless (CL): Cubeless money play.
  • Double Match Point (DMP): In a match which has come down to one final game.
  • Gammon-Go (GG): When aggressively going for a gammon win.
  • Gammon-Save (GS): When aggressively avoiding a gammon loss.

   PLAY W      G     BG     EQUITY VOTES CL DMP GG GS
  8/7(2), 6/5(2)   + .528, .155, .006
  − .472, .137, .007
 +.073   RDBC (.001) (.011)
  24/22, 6/5(2)   + .528, .143, .005
  − .472, .132, .005
 +.068   (.006) (.023)
  24/23(2), 6/5(2)   + .510, .145, .005
  − .490, .128, .005
 +.037   (.036) (.037) (.055) (.029)
  24/23, 6/5(3)   + .513, .142, .005
  − .487, .137, .005
 +.030   (.043) (.031) (.056) (.042)
   PLAY W      G     BG     EQUITY VOTES CL DMP GG GS
  13/11, 6/5   + .447, .119, .004
  − .553, .176, .011
 −.169   RDB (.011)
  24/23, 13/11   + .442, .116, .004
  − .558, .173, .007
 −.175   C (.006) (.010) (.016) (.015)
  24/21   + .440, .105, .004
  − .560, .163, .006
 −.181   (.012) (.016) (.043)
  24/23, 24/22   + .439, .107, .004
  − .561, .170, .006
 −.186   (.017) (.016) (.040) (.015)
  13/10   + .428, .117, .004
  − .572, .170, .009
 −.201   (.033) (.039) (.042) (.038)
  24/22, 6/5   + .436, .105, .003
  − .564, .178, .008
 −.206   (.037) (.022) (.051) (.038)
   PLAY W      G     BG     EQUITY VOTES CL DMP GG GS
  13/11(2), 6/4(2)   + .533, .165, .007
  − .467, .138, .007
 +.093   RBC (.092)
  24/22(2), 6/4(2)   + .524, .142, .005
  − .476, .105, .004
 +.085   (.009) (.018) (.065) (.045)
  24/22, 13/11, 6/4(2)   + .526, .148, .006
  − .474, .132, .005
 +.069   (.024) (.014) (.048) (.093)
  24/20(2)   + .515, .107, .003
  − .485, .074, .002
 +.064   D (.030) (.036) (.153)
   PLAY W      G     BG     EQUITY VOTES CL DMP GG GS
  8/5, 6/5   + .497, .148, .006
  − .503, .145, .007
 −.005   RDBC
   PLAY W      G     BG     EQUITY VOTES CL DMP GG GS
  24/21, 13/11   + .451, .114, .005
  − .549, .163, .007
 −.149   DC
  24/22, 13/10   + .449, .117, .004
  − .551, .163, .007
 −.151   B (.002) (.005) (.000) (.005)
  24/22, 24/21   + .447, .105, .004
  − .553, .169, .006
 −.172   (.023) (.008) (.028) (.021)
  13/11, 13/10   + .437, .126, .005
  − .563, .170, .009
 −.173   R (.025) (.028) (.004) (.042)
   PLAY W      G     BG     EQUITY VOTES CL DMP GG GS
  24/21(2), 13/10(2)   + .537, .136, .004
  − .463, .088, .003
 +.124   RC (.060)
  24/21(2), 6/3(2)   + .531, .136, .004
  − .469, .088, .003
 +.111   (.012) (.012) (.073) (.012)
  24/21(2), 8/5(2)   + .525, .147, .004
  − .475, .089, .003
 +.110   DB (.014) (.024) (.062) (.026)
  8/5(2), 6/3(2)   + .524, .179, .008
  − .476, .138, .007
 +.091   (.033) (.027) (.127)
   PLAY W      G     BG     EQUITY VOTES CL DMP GG GS
  24/23, 13/9   + .445, .122, .004
  − .555, .176, .008
 −.167   RDBC (.025)
  24/23, 24/20   + .441, .103, .004
  − .559, .159, .006
 −.176   (.009) (.009) (.047)
  13/9, 6/5   + .438, .116, .004
  − .562, .179, .012
 −.194   (.028) (.014) (.024) (.046)
  13/8   + .428, .113, .004
  − .572, .170, .008
 −.207   (.040) (.035) (.054) (.050)
  24/20, 6/5   + .437, .105, .004
  − .563, .184, .010
 −.211   (.044) (.017) (.051) (.058)
   PLAY W      G     BG     EQUITY VOTES CL DMP GG GS
  8/4, 6/4   + .480, .143, .006
  − .520, .153, .007
 −.053   RDBC
   PLAY W      G     BG     EQUITY VOTES CL DMP GG GS
  24/21, 13/9   + .449, .117, .004
  − .551, .163, .007
 −.151   DBC (.001) (.007)
  24/21, 24/20   + .450, .102, .004
  − .550, .160, .006
 −.161   (.010) (.029)
  24/20, 13/10   + .445, .113, .005
  − .555, .166, .008
 −.165   (.014) (.008) (.014) (.021)
  13/10, 13/9   + .436, .128, .005
  − .564, .167, .010
 −.172   R (.021) (.028) (.004) (.042)
   PLAY W      G     BG     EQUITY VOTES CL DMP GG GS
  24/20(2), 13/9(2)   + .580, .143, .004
  − .420, .064, .002
 +.240   RDBC
   PLAY W      G     BG     EQUITY VOTES CL DMP GG GS
  24/23, 13/8   + .446, .116, .004
  − .554, .164, .006
 −.157   C
  13/8, 6/5   + .435, .113, .004
  − .565, .169, .009
 −.191   RD (.034) (.022) (.028) (.032)
   PLAY W      G     BG     EQUITY VOTES CL DMP GG GS
  24/22, 13/8   + .450, .114, .004
  − .550, .159, .006
 −.146   BC
  13/11, 13/8   + .435, .123, .004
  − .565, .171, .009
 −.183   R (.037) (.030) (.012) (.056)
   PLAY W      G     BG     EQUITY VOTES CL DMP GG GS
  8/3, 6/3   + .456, .136, .005
  − .544, .165, .008
 −.119   RBC (.012)
  24/21, 13/8   + .453, .114, .004
  − .547, .156, .006
 −.137   (.019) (.005) (.051)
   PLAY W      G     BG     EQUITY VOTES CL DMP GG GS
  24/20, 13/8   + .450, .110, .004
  − .550, .158, .006
 −.150   RC (.008)
  24/15   + .449, .102, .004
  − .551, .164, .006
 −.165   DB (.015) (.000) (.024) (.012)
  13/9, 13/8   + .435, .129, .005
  − .565, .166, .008
 −.170   (.019) (.028) (.044)
   PLAY W      G     BG     EQUITY VOTES CL DMP GG GS
  13/3(2)   + .473, .150, .009
  − .527, .160, .006
 −.061   RDBC
   PLAY W      G     BG     EQUITY VOTES CL DMP GG GS
  13/7, 8/7   + .473, .128, .004
  − .527, .151, .006
 −.080   RDBC
   PLAY W      G     BG     EQUITY VOTES CL DMP GG GS
  24/16   + .446, .101, .004
  − .554, .165, .006
 −.175   RDBC
  13/5   + .429, .118, .004
  − .571, .169, .010
 −.198   (.023) (.033) (.000) (.040)
  24/22, 13/7   + .430, .110, .004
  − .570, .174, .008
 −.208   (.033) (.031) (.014) (.048)
  13/11, 13/7   + .422, .117, .004
  − .578, .178, .011
 −.223   (.047) (.046) (.015) (.071)
   PLAY W      G     BG     EQUITY VOTES CL DMP GG GS
  24/15   + .449, .102, .004
  − .551, .164, .006
 −.165   RDBC
  24/21, 13/7   + .436, .111, .004
  − .564, .172, .008
 −.193   (.028) (.027) (.010) (.044)
   PLAY W      G     BG     EQUITY VOTES CL DMP GG GS
  24/14   + .452, .102, .004
  − .548, .160, .006
 −.156   RDBC (.025)
  8/2, 6/2   + .435, .132, .005
  − .565, .170, .008
 −.171   (.015) (.034) (.054)
   PLAY W      G     BG     EQUITY VOTES CL DMP GG GS
  13/8, 13/7   + .420, .117, .005
  − .580, .169, .009
 −.216   RDBC
   PLAY W      G     BG     EQUITY VOTES CL DMP GG GS
  13/7(2), 8/2(2)   + .470, .154, .008
  − .530, .161, .007
 −.064   RBC (.029)
  13/7(4)   + .465, .140, .006
  − .535, .141, .005
 −.071   D (.007) (.010) (.040)
  13/7(3), 8/2   + .465, .145, .006
  − .535, .158, .007
 −.084   (.019) (.010) (.028) (.033)

Summary

Rolls in order from luckiest to unluckiest, and calculation of average equity.

(+.343) 24/20(2), 13/9(2) +.240 × 1  =   +.240
(+.227) 24/21(2), 13/10(2) +.124 × 1  =   +.124
(+.196) 13/11(2), 6/4(2) +.093 × 1  =   +.093
(+.176) 8/7(2), 6/5(2) +.073 × 1  =   +.073
(+.098) 8/5, 6/5 −.005 × 2  =   −.009
(+.050) 8/4, 6/4 −.053 × 2  =   −.105
(+.042) 13/3(2) −.061 × 1  =   −.061
(+.039) 13/7(2), 8/2(2) −.064 × 1  =   −.064
(+.023) 13/7, 8/7 −.080 × 2  =   −.159
(−.016) 8/3, 6/3 −.119 × 2  =   −.237
(−.043) 24/22, 13/8 −.146 × 2  =   −.293
(−.046) 24/21, 13/11 −.149 × 2  =   −.297
(−.047) 24/20, 13/8 −.150 × 2  =   −.300
(−.048) 24/21, 13/9 −.151 × 2  =   −.301
(−.053) 24/14 −.156 × 2  =   −.312
(−.054) 24/23, 13/8 −.157 × 2  =   −.314
(−.062) 24/15 −.165 × 2  =   −.330
(−.064) 24/23, 13/9 −.167 × 2  =   −.333
(−.066) 13/11, 6/5 −.169 × 2  =   −.338
(−.072) 24/16 −.175 × 2  =   −.351
(−.113) 13/8, 13/7 −.216 × 2  =   −.432
  ———
  White's Average Equity −3.707  ÷  36  =  −.103

 

Return to : Backgammon Galore : Openings : Replies