From Better Backgammon, by Tim Holland
||White to play 6-5.|
The correct play is to move one man from Black’s 1 point to Black’s 12 point. You disdain hitting Black’s blot on your 5 point for the reason that you are so far ahead in the race that you plan to double on your next roll. Now that you have no problems other than getting your men into your home board without being hit, Black can hardly accept. If he does, all the better for you.
If you choose to make your 5 point, you are immediately exposed to being hit by a 4 and 6. Admittedly it’s only a 17 to 1 risk, but why risk it, when to all intents and purposes you have won the game with the other play. Even if Black doesn’t roll 6 and 4, he may roll double 1s or 3s, which will improve his position. You may then find it more difficult to escape with your lone man on Black’s 1 point.
This problem will show you that when you have a choice of moves you should determine which offers you the best chances of winning or the least of losing, then select that one.
Tom Keith 2013
Black owns 2-cube
White rolls 6-5
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Checker play: 3-ply
Cube play: XG Roller