Position 35a, page 60
From Better Backgammon, by Tim Holland

Should White
double to 4?

Since backgammon is not an exact science, it is difficult and sometimes impossible to make qualified statements regarding certain areas of play. One of these areas involves those games where your opponent has borne off several men and you then hit one of his men.

There are many factors which must be taken into consideration before making any assertions concerning your probabilities of winning or losing. Such as, how many men you opponent has borne off; on what points his remaining men are located, and, where your three extra men are (the men other than those needed for a closed board.

My experience has been that the break-even point occurs when my opponent has borne off eight men and his remaining men are located in such a position that when he resumes bearing off, he will not miss. This also assume that my three odd men are favorably placed (in the high points in my game board), which should enable me to bear off at least two men before being forced to open my board.

In contrast, look at Position 35b.

XG logo
Tom Keith 2013 
Money play
White owns 2-cube
White on roll

1296 games with VR
Checker play: 3-ply
Cube play: XG Roller

Cube Action Game BG   Equity
No double W
+0.2210 x  *
Double Take W
−0.2371 −0.2371 (0.4581) 
Drop +1.0000

  White is not good enough to redouble  

Previous Position
No. 35, page 57
Next Position
No. 35b, page 61

List of Positions from Better Backgammon

Better Backgammon (1974), by Tim Holland

Backgammon Galore : Books