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The correct move is to make White’s 5 point. This gives you a position that is so strong that unless Black rolls double 3s or double 6s on his next roll, you should double. The fact that you possess an advanced point in Black’s board makes it unlikely that you will find it difficult to escape when you wish.

The move of hitting Black’s blot on Black’s 9 point and continuing that man to Black’s 12 point increases his chances of improving his position. Now the rolls of 5 and 4, double 5s, 4 and 3, and double 1s are immediately beneficial, plus rolls such as 5 and 1, 5 and 3, 2 and 1, and 2 and 3 that permit him to hit your blot on his 5 point, perhaps forcing you to hit a fourth man, which might give him the opportunity to play a back game.

Rollout  Tom Keith 2013

Money play Black owns 2-cube White rolls 4-3 1296 games with VR Checker play: 3-ply Cube play: XG Roller

XGID=-b-B--D-CA--dC--ac-dBa----:1:-1:1:43:0:0:0:0

	4-3:		Game	G	BG	Equity
1	9/5, 8/5	W L	.6928 .3072	.2037 .0522	.0111 .0023	+0.4347
2	20/16*/13	W L	.6334 .3666	.2463 .0749	.0276 .0029	+0.3098	(0.1249)
3	20/16*, 13/10	W L	.6230 .3770	.2538 .0878	.0281 .0054	+0.2850	(0.1497)

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List of Positions from Better Backgammon

Better Backgammon (1974), by Tim Holland